DOI: 10.1002/2016GL067895
论文题名: Multiyear climate prediction with initialization based on 4D-Var data assimilation
作者: Mochizuki T. ; Masuda S. ; Ishikawa Y. ; Awaji T.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9079
EISSN: 1944-8810
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 8 起始页码: 3903
结束页码: 3910
语种: 英语
英文关键词: 4D-Var data assimilation
; coupled data assimilation
; decadal prediction
; global warming
; multiyear prediction
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Forecasting
; Global warming
; Surface waters
; Value engineering
; 4D-Var data assimilation
; Climate prediction
; Coupled climate model
; Data assimilation
; Decadal predictions
; Four dimensional variational
; Initial conditions
; Sea surface height
; Climate models
; atmosphere-ocean coupling
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; data assimilation
; decadal variation
; global warming
; hindcasting
; low pressure system
; sea surface height
; sea surface temperature
; upper ocean
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
英文摘要: An initialization relevant to interannual-to-decadal climate prediction has usually used a simple restoring approach for oceanic variables. Here we demonstrate the potential use of four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation on the leading edge of initialization approach particularly in multiyear (5 year long) climate prediction. We perform full-field initialization rather than anomaly initialization and assimilate the atmosphere states together with the ocean states to an atmosphere-ocean coupled climate model. In particular, it is noteworthy that ensembles of multiyear hindcasts using our assimilation results as initial conditions exhibit an improved skill in hindcasting the multiyear changes of the upper ocean heat content (OHC) over the central North Pacific. The 4D-Var approach enables us to directly assimilate a time trajectory of slow changes of the Aleutian Low that are compatible with the sea surface height and the OHC. Consequently, we can estimate a coupled climate state suitable for hindcasting dynamical changes over the extratropical North Pacific as observed. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84968912248&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL067895&partnerID=40&md5=bcf9e7a661ea525bf362aa32c6822ece
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10042
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Mochizuki T.,Masuda S.,Ishikawa Y.,et al. Multiyear climate prediction with initialization based on 4D-Var data assimilation[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(8).