DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067189
论文题名: Attribution of extreme weather and climate events overestimated by unreliable climate simulations
作者: Bellprat O. ; Doblas-Reyes F.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9267
EISSN: 1944-8998
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 5 起始页码: 2158
结束页码: 2164
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; climate extremes
; event attribution
; reliability
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Meteorology
; Probability
; Reliability
; Attributable risks
; Climate extremes
; Climate simulation
; Climate variability
; Event attribution
; Extreme weather
; Model ensembles
; Operational forecasting
; Climate change
英文摘要: Event attribution aims to estimate the role of an external driver after the occurrence of an extreme weather and climate event by comparing the probability that the event occurs in two counterfactual worlds. These probabilities are typically computed using ensembles of climate simulations whose simulated probabilities are known to be imperfect. The implications of using imperfect models in this context are largely unknown, limited by the number of observed extreme events in the past to conduct a robust evaluation. Using an idealized framework, this model limitation is studied by generating large number of simulations with variable reliability in simulated probability. The framework illustrates that unreliable climate simulations are prone to overestimate the attributable risk to climate change. Climate model ensembles tend to be overconfident in their representation of the climate variability which leads to systematic increase in the attributable risk to an extreme event. Our results suggest that event attribution approaches comprising of a single climate model would benefit from ensemble calibration in order to account for model inadequacies similarly as operational forecasting systems. © 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84960146133&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL067189&partnerID=40&md5=f9d02b0c55ec3586a1ccd7c096aabc3d
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10230
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Institut Català de Ciències Del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Bellprat O.,Doblas-Reyes F.. Attribution of extreme weather and climate events overestimated by unreliable climate simulations[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(5).