| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL066562
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| 论文题名: | Dynamically combining climate models to "supermodel" the tropical Pacific |
| 作者: | Shen M.-L.; Keenlyside N.; Selten F.; Wiegerinck W.; Duane G.S.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9487
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| EISSN: | 1944-9218
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 卷: | 43, 期:1 | | 起始页码: | 359
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| 结束页码: | 366
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | interactive ensemble
; Nelder-Mead Method
; supermodeling
; synchronization
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| Scopus关键词: | Artificial intelligence
; Atmospheric temperature
; Earth atmosphere
; Heat flux
; Learning algorithms
; Learning systems
; Oceanography
; Surface waters
; Synchronization
; Tropics
; Atmospheric general circulation models
; Atmospheric variability
; Interactive ensemble
; Intertropical convergence zone
; Nelder-Mead methods
; Ocean-atmosphere interactions
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Supermodeling
; Climate models
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| 英文摘要: | We construct an interactive ensemble of two different climate models to improve simulation of key aspects of tropical Pacific climate. Our so-called supermodel is based on two atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) coupled to a single ocean GCM, which is driven by a weighted average of the air-sea fluxes. Optimal weights are determined using a machine learning algorithm to minimize sea surface temperature errors over the tropical Pacific. This coupling strategy synchronizes atmospheric variability in the two AGCMs over the equatorial Pacific, where it improves the representation of ocean-atmosphere interaction and the climate state. In particular, the common double Intertropical Convergence Zone error is suppressed, and the positive Bjerknes feedback improves substantially to match observations well, and the negative heat flux feedback is also much improved. This study supports the concept of supermodeling as a promising multimodel ensemble strategy to improve weather and climate predictions. © 2015. The Authors. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84956584092&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL066562&partnerID=40&md5=da9392101338f60d95921a2b615736c0
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10450
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Shen M.-L.,Keenlyside N.,Selten F.,et al. Dynamically combining climate models to "supermodel" the tropical Pacific[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(1).
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