| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL066560
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| 论文题名: | Emergence of human influence on summer record-breaking temperatures over Europe |
| 作者: | Bador M.; Terray L.; Boé J.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9504
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| EISSN: | 1944-9235
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 卷: | 43, 期:1 | | 起始页码: | 404
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| 结束页码: | 412
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | anthropogenic influence
; Europe record-breaking temperatures
; time of emergence
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| Scopus关键词: | Greenhouse gases
; Anthropogenic influence
; Business-as-usual
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Internal variability
; Multi-model ensemble
; Observational analysis
; Time of emergence
; Twentieth century
; Climate models
; anthropogenic effect
; climate modeling
; cooling
; emission inventory
; ensemble forecasting
; greenhouse gas
; new record
; summer
; temperature anomaly
; timescale
; trend analysis
; uncertainty analysis
; warming
; Europe
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| 英文摘要: | Observational analysis of Europe summer record-breaking temperatures suggests that their occurrence differs from that expected in a stationary climate since the late 1980s. The observed cold and warm record evolution is well simulated by the ensemble mean of 27 coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that this evolution is still today within the range of internal variability derived from CMIP5 preindustrial simulations. We then estimate a time of emergence of the summer record anthropogenic influence in a world under a business as usual greenhouse gas emission scenario. We suggest a time of emergence around 2020 for the cold records and 2030 for the warm ones with an uncertainty of ± 20 years. By 2100, the multimodel ensemble mean indicates a tenfold increase of the number of warm records compared to the first half of the twentieth century and the quasi-disappearance of cold records. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84957727749&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL066560&partnerID=40&md5=5847c44dcd176b59fadc126bd26ca70a
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10467
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Climate Modelling and Global Change Team, URA1875, CNRS/CERFACS, Toulouse, France
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Bador M.,Terray L.,Boé J.. Emergence of human influence on summer record-breaking temperatures over Europe[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(1).
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