DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2824
论文题名: Skilful predictions of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation one year ahead
作者: Dunstone N. ; Smith D. ; Scaife A. ; Hermanson L. ; Eade R. ; Robinson N. ; Andrews M. ; Knight J.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2016
卷: 9, 期: 11 起始页码: 809
结束页码: 814
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: forecasting method
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; polar vortex
; radiative forcing
; sea ice
; seasonal variation
; signal-to-noise ratio
; stratosphere
; winter
; Arctic
; Europe
; North America
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
英文摘要: The winter North Atlantic Oscillation is the primary mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic region and has a profound influence on European and North American winter climate. Until recently, seasonal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation was thought to be largely driven by chaotic and inherently unpredictable processes. However, latest generation seasonal forecasting systems have demonstrated significant skill in predicting the North Atlantic Oscillation when initialized a month before the onset of winter. Here we extend skilful dynamical model predictions to more than a year ahead. The skill increases greatly with ensemble size due to a spuriously small signal-to-noise ratio in the model, and consequently larger ensembles are projected to further increase the skill in predicting the North Atlantic Oscillation. We identify two sources of skill for second-winter forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation: climate variability in the tropical Pacific region and predictable effects of solar forcing on the stratospheric polar vortex strength. We also identify model biases in Arctic sea ice that, if reduced, may further increase skill. Our results open possibilities for a range of new climate services, including for the transport, energy, water management and insurance sectors. © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/105900
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Dunstone N.,Smith D.,Scaife A.,et al. Skilful predictions of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation one year ahead[J]. Nature Geoscience,2016-01-01,9(11)