DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1698
论文题名: Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings
作者: Sigmond M. ; Scinocca J.F. ; Kharin V.V. ; Shepherd T.G.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2013
卷: 6, 期: 2 起始页码: 98
结束页码: 102
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: accuracy assessment
; atmospheric circulation
; extratropical environment
; socioeconomic impact
; stratosphere
; surface temperature
; troposphere
; warming
; weather forecasting
英文摘要: Advances in seasonal forecasting have brought widespread socio-economic benefits. However, seasonal forecast skill in the extratropics is relatively modest, prompting the seasonal forecasting community to search for additional sources of predictability. For over a decade it has been suggested that knowledge of the state of the stratosphere can act as a source of enhanced seasonal predictability; long-lived circulation anomalies in the lower stratosphere that follow stratospheric sudden warmings are associated with circulation anomalies in the troposphere that can last up to two months. Here, we show by performing retrospective ensemble model forecasts that such enhanced predictability can be realized in a dynamical seasonal forecast system with a good representation of the stratosphere. When initialized at the onset date of stratospheric sudden warmings, the model forecasts faithfully reproduce the observed mean tropospheric conditions in the months following the stratospheric sudden warmings. Compared with an equivalent set of forecasts that are not initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings, we document enhanced forecast skill for atmospheric circulation patterns, surface temperatures over northern Russia and eastern Canada and North Atlantic precipitation. We suggest that seasonal forecast systems initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings are likely to yield significantly greater forecast skill in some regions. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/106878
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 1A7, Canada; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, BC V8W 3V6, Canada; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Sigmond M.,Scinocca J.F.,Kharin V.V.,et al. Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings[J]. Nature Geoscience,2013-01-01,6(2)