globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-4017-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85035126493
论文题名:
Attractor radius and global attractor radius and their application to the quantification of predictability limits
作者: Li J.; Feng J.; Ding R.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 51, 期:2018-05-06
起始页码: 2359
结束页码: 2374
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: climate modeling ; climate prediction ; ensemble forecasting ; error analysis ; feasibility study ; geometry ; geostatistics ; quantitative analysis ; theoretical study
英文摘要: Quantifying the predictability limits of chaotic systems and their forecast models is an important issue with both theoretical and practical significance. This paper introduces three invariant statistical properties of attractors, namely the attractor radius, global attractor radius (GAR), and the global average distance between two attractors, to define the geometric characteristics and average behavior of a chaotic system and its error growth. The GAR is 2 times the attractor radius. These invariant quantities are applied to quantitatively measure the global and local predictability limits (both have practical and potential predictability limits, which correspond to the attractor radius and GAR, respectively) of both global ensemble average forecasts and one single initial state, respectively. Both the attractor radius and GAR are intrinsic properties of a chaotic system and independent of the forecast model and model errors, and thus provide more accurate, objective metrics to assess the global and local predictability limits of forecast models compared with the traditional error saturation or asymptotic value (AV). Both the Lorenz63 model and operational forecast data are used to demonstrate the theoretical aspects of these geometric characteristics and evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of their application to predictability analysis. © 2017, The Author(s).
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109155
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science (GCESS), Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266237, China; School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States; State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China; College of Earth Science, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Recommended Citation:
Li J.,Feng J.,Ding R.. Attractor radius and global attractor radius and their application to the quantification of predictability limits[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,51(2018-05-06)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Li J.]'s Articles
[Feng J.]'s Articles
[Ding R.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Li J.]'s Articles
[Feng J.]'s Articles
[Ding R.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Li J.]‘s Articles
[Feng J.]‘s Articles
[Ding R.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.