DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3656-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85017181478
论文题名: Impacts of the Pacific Meridional Mode on Landfalling North Atlantic tropical cyclones
作者: Zhang W. ; Villarini G. ; Vecchi G.A. ; Murakami H.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 991
结束页码: 1006
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Landfall
; Pacific Meridional Mode
; Tropical Cyclones
Scopus关键词: climate modeling
; climate oscillation
; computer simulation
; cyclogenesis
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; storm track
; tropical cyclone
; weather forecasting
; Atlantic Coast [North America]
; Atlantic Coast [United States]
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Caribbean Islands
; Mexico [North America]
; United States
英文摘要: This study examines the impacts of the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) on North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall along the coastal US, Caribbean Islands and Mexico, and provides insights on the underlying physical mechanisms using observations and model simulations. There is a statistically significant time-lagged association between spring PMM and the August–October US and Caribbean landfalling TCs. Specifically, the positive (negative) spring PMM events tend to be followed by fewer (more) TCs affecting the coastal US (especially over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida) and the Caribbean Islands. This lagged association is mainly caused by the lagged impacts of PMM on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the subsequent impacts of ENSO on TC frequency and landfalls. Positive (negative) PMM events are largely followed by El Niño (La Niña) events, which lead to less (more) TC geneses close to the US coast (i.e., the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea); this also leads to easterly (westerly) steering flow in the vicinity of the US and Caribbean coast, which is unfavorable (favorable) to TC landfall across the Gulf of Mexico, Florida and Caribbean Islands. Perturbation simulations with the state-of-the-art Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution Version of CM2.5 (FLOR) support the linkage between PMM and TC landfall activity. The time-lagged impacts of spring PMM on TC landfalling activity results in a new predictor to forecast seasonal TC landfall activity along the US (especially over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida) and Caribbean coastal regions. © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109443
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, United States; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ, United States; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Zhang W.,Villarini G.,Vecchi G.A.,et al. Impacts of the Pacific Meridional Mode on Landfalling North Atlantic tropical cyclones[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-03-04)