DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3623-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85015819727
论文题名: Analysis of future drought characteristics in China using the regional climate model CCLM
作者: Huang J. ; Zhai J. ; Jiang T. ; Wang Y. ; Li X. ; Wang R. ; Xiong M. ; Su B. ; Fischer T.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 507
结束页码: 525
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Area
; CCLM
; China
; Drought
; Duration
; Intensity
Scopus关键词: adaptive management
; climate modeling
; drought
; evapotranspiration
; future prospect
; precipitation intensity
; regional climate
; river basin
; severe weather
; temporal analysis
; China
英文摘要: In this paper, the intensity, area and duration of future droughts in China are analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The SPI and SPEI are used to evaluate the simulation ability of drought characteristics with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The projected intensity and duration of future drought events are analyzed for the period 2016–2050 under three different respective concentration pathways (RCPs). The simulated and projected drought events are analyzed by applying the intensity-area-duration method. The results show that CCLM has a robust capability to simulate the average drought characteristics, while some regional disparities are not well captured, mainly the simulation of more drought events of shorter duration in Northwest China. For the future period 2016–2050, more intense dryness conditions are projected for China. An increase in evapotranspiration is found all over China, while a reduction in precipitation is apparent in the southern river basins. The increase in evapotranspiration plays an important role in the changes of future droughts over the northern river basins and southern river basins. Under RCP2.6, drought events of longer duration and with higher frequency are projected for the southwest and southeast of China. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, a continuing tendency to more dry conditions is projected along a dryness band stretching from the southwest to the northeast of China. More frequent drought events of longer duration are projected in the southwestern river basins. For all future droughts, larger extents are projected, especially for events with long-term duration. The projected long-term drought events will occur more often and more severe than during the baseline period, and their central locations will likely shift towards Southeast China. The results of this study can be used to initiate and strengthen drought adaptation measures at regional and local scale, especially in the south of China. © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109486
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/School of Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China; Faculty of Resources and Environment, Hubei University, Wuhan, China; Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan, China; Department of Geosciences, Eberhard Karls University, Tübingen, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Huang J.,Zhai J.,Jiang T.,et al. Analysis of future drought characteristics in China using the regional climate model CCLM[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-01-02)