DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0898.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85054088654
论文题名: Projected response of tropical cyclone intensity and intensification in a global climate model
作者: Bhatia K. ; Vecchi G. ; Murakami H. ; Underwood S. ; Kossin J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 20 起始页码: 8281
结束页码: 8303
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Hurricanes/typhoons
; Tropical cyclones
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Climate models
; Hurricanes
; Oceanography
; Storms
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Coupled climate model
; Geophysical fluid dynamics laboratories
; Global climate model
; Hurricanes/typhoons
; Interannual variation
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Tropical cyclone
; Tropical cyclone intensity
; Climate change
英文摘要: As one of the first global coupled climate models to simulate and predict category 4 and 5 (Saffir-Simpson scale) tropical cyclones (TCs) and their interannual variations, the High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (HiFLOR) model at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) represents a novel source of insight on how the entire TC intensification distribution could be transformed because of climate change. In this study, three 70-yr HiFLOR experiments are performed to identify the effects of climate change on TC intensity and intensification. For each of the experiments, sea surface temperature (SST) is nudged to different climatological targets and atmospheric radiative forcing is specified, allowing us to explore the sensitivity of TCs to these conditions. First, a control experiment, which uses prescribed climatological ocean and radiative forcing based on observations during the years 1986-2005, is compared to two observational records and evaluated for its ability to capture the mean TC behavior during these years. The simulated intensification distributions as well as the percentage of TCs that become major hurricanes show similarities with observations. The control experiment is then compared to two twenty-first-century experiments, in which the climatological SSTs from the control experiment are perturbed by multimodel projected SST anomalies and atmospheric radiative forcing from either 2016-35 or 2081-2100 (RCP4.5 scenario). The frequency, intensity, and intensification distribution of TCs all shift to higher values as the twenty-first century progresses. HiFLOR's unique response to climate change and fidelity in simulating the present climate lays the groundwork for future studies involving models of this type. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110663
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; Geosciences Department, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information, Center for Weather and Climate, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Bhatia K.,Vecchi G.,Murakami H.,et al. Projected response of tropical cyclone intensity and intensification in a global climate model[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(20)