DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.06.008
论文题名: Response of evapotranspiration and water availability to changing climate and land cover on the Mongolian Plateau during the 21st century
作者: Liu Y. ; Zhuang Q. ; Chen M. ; Pan Z. ; Tchebakova N. ; Sokolov A. ; Kicklighter D. ; Melillo J. ; Sirin A. ; Zhou G. ; He Y. ; Chen J. ; Bowling L. ; Miralles D. ; Parfenova E.
刊名: Global and Planetary Change
ISSN: 0921-8249
出版年: 2013
卷: 108 起始页码: 85
结束页码: 99
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Evapotranspiration
; Land cover change
; MODIS
; Mongolian Plateau
; Terrestrial Ecosystem Model
Scopus关键词: Climate change scenarios
; Ecological vulnerability
; Global climate system
; Hydrological cycles
; Land-cover change
; MODIS
; Mongolians
; Terrestrial ecosystems
; Climate models
; Ecosystems
; Evapotranspiration
; Forestry
; Radiometers
; Water supply
; Climate change
; boreal forest
; climate change
; eddy covariance
; evapotranspiration
; global climate
; grassland
; hydrological cycle
; land cover
; MODIS
; Penman-Monteith equation
; twenty first century
; vulnerability
; water availability
; Algorithms
; Ecosystems
; Evaporation
; Land Use
; Radiometry
; Seasonal Variation
; Transpiration
; Water Supply
; Mongolian Plateau
英文摘要: Adequate quantification of evapotranspiration (ET) is crucial to assess how climate change and land cover change (LCC) interact with the hydrological cycle of terrestrial ecosystems. The Mongolian Plateau plays a unique role in the global climate system due to its ecological vulnerability, high sensitivity to climate change and disturbances, and limited water resources. Here, we used a version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model that has been modified to use Penman-Monteith (PM) based algorithms to calculate ET. Comparison of site-level ET estimates from the modified model with ET measured at eddy covariance (EC) sites showed better agreement than ET estimates from the MODIS ET product, which overestimates ET during the winter months. The modified model was then used to simulate ET during the 21st century under six climate change scenarios by excluding/including climate-induced LCC. We found that regional annual ET varies from 188 to 286mmyr-1 across all scenarios, and that it increases between 0.11mmyr-2 and 0.55mmyr-2 during the 21st century. A spatial gradient of ET that increases from the southwest to the northeast is consistent in all scenarios. Regional ET in grasslands, boreal forests and semi-desert/deserts ranges from 242 to 374mmyr-1, 213 to 278mmyr-1 and 100 to 199mmyr-1, respectively; and the degree of the ET increase follows the order of grassland, semi-desert/desert, and boreal forest. Across the plateau, climate-induced LCC does not lead to a substantial change (<5%) in ET relative to a static land cover, suggesting that climate change is more important than LCC in determining regional ET. Furthermore, the differences between precipitation and ET suggest that the available water for human use (water availability) on the plateau will not change significantly during the 21st century. However, more water is available and less area is threatened by water shortage in the Business-As-Usual emission scenarios relative to level-one stabilization emission scenarios. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84880344608&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2013.06.008&partnerID=40&md5=b65b95bd1edb1a99d9e15090baca6f4a
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11155
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, United States
Recommended Citation:
Liu Y.,Zhuang Q.,Chen M.,et al. Response of evapotranspiration and water availability to changing climate and land cover on the Mongolian Plateau during the 21st century[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2013-01-01,108.