DOI: 10.1029/2017JD027992
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85047880544
论文题名: Prospects and Caveats of Weighting Climate Models for Summer Maximum Temperature Projections Over North America
作者: Lorenz R. ; Herger N. ; Sedláček J. ; Eyring V. ; Fischer E.M. ; Knutti R.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期: 9 起始页码: 4509
结束页码: 4526
语种: 英语
英文关键词: independence
; multimodel ensemble
; performance
; summer temperature
; weighting
Scopus关键词: air temperature
; climate modeling
; climatology
; detection method
; ensemble forecasting
; performance assessment
; precipitation (climatology)
; prediction
; sea surface temperature
; shortwave radiation
; United States
英文摘要: Uncertainties in climate projections exist due to natural variability, scenario uncertainty, and model uncertainty. It has been argued that model uncertainty can be decreased by giving more weight to those models in multimodel ensembles that are more skillful and realistic for a specific process or application. In addition, some models in multimodel ensembles are not independent. We use a weighting approach proposed recently that takes into account both model performance and interdependence and apply it to investigate projections of summer maximum temperature climatology over North America in two regions of different sizes. We quantify the influence of predicting diagnostics included in the method, look at ways how to choose them, and assess the influence of the observational data set used. The trend in shortwave radiation, mean precipitation, sea surface temperature variability, and variability and trend in maximum temperature itself are the most promising constraints on projections of summer maximum temperature over North America. The influence of the observational data sets is large for summer temperature climatology, since the observational and reanalysis products used for absolute maximum temperatures disagree. Including multiple predicting diagnostics leads to more similar results for different data sets. We find that the weighted multimodel mean reduces the change in summer daily temperature maxima compared to the nonweighted mean slightly (0.05–0.45 °C) over the central United States. We show that it is essential to have reliable observations for key variables to be able to constrain multimodel ensembles of future projections. ©2018. The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/113895
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; ARC Center of Excellence for Climate System Science and Climate Change Research Center, UNSW Australia, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany; Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP), University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Lorenz R.,Herger N.,Sedláček J.,et al. Prospects and Caveats of Weighting Climate Models for Summer Maximum Temperature Projections Over North America[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2018-01-01,123(9)