DOI: 10.1002/2017JD027885
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85042084409
论文题名: Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Obtained From Multimillennial Runs of Two GFDL Climate Models
作者: Paynter D. ; Frölicher T.L. ; Horowitz L.W. ; Silvers L.G.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期: 4 起始页码: 1921
结束页码: 1941
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate feedback
; ECS
; global warming
Scopus关键词: atmospheric gas
; atmospheric modeling
; climate feedback
; climate modeling
; cloud microphysics
; general circulation model
; global warming
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; parameterization
英文摘要: Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), defined as the long-term change in global mean surface air temperature in response to doubling atmospheric CO2, is usually computed from short atmospheric simulations over a mixed layer ocean, or inferred using a linear regression over a short-time period of adjustment. We report the actual ECS from multimillenial simulations of two Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) general circulation models (GCMs), ESM2M, and CM3 of 3.3 K and 4.8 K, respectively. Both values are ~1 K higher than estimates for the same models reported in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change obtained by regressing the Earth's energy imbalance against temperature. This underestimate is mainly due to changes in the climate feedback parameter (−α) within the first century after atmospheric CO2 has stabilized. For both GCMs it is possible to estimate ECS with linear regression to within 0.3 K by increasing CO2 at 1% per year to doubling and using years 51–350 after CO2 is constant. We show that changes in −α differ between the two GCMs and are strongly tied to the changes in both vertical velocity at 500 hPa (ω500) and estimated inversion strength that the GCMs experience during the progression toward the equilibrium. This suggests that while cloud physics parametrizations are important for determining the strength of −α, the substantially different atmospheric state resulting from a changed sea surface temperature pattern may be of equal importance. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/114455
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Paynter D.,Frölicher T.L.,Horowitz L.W.,et al. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Obtained From Multimillennial Runs of Two GFDL Climate Models[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2018-01-01,123(4)