DOI: 10.1002/2017JG003836
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85042218349
论文题名: Unraveling the Role of Temperature and Rainfall on Active Fires in the Brazilian Amazon Using a Nonlinear Poisson Model
作者: Lima C.H.R. ; AghaKouchak A. ; Randerson J.T.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
ISSN: 21698953
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期: 1 起始页码: 117
结束页码: 128
语种: 英语
英文关键词: fire
; Poisson model
; rainfall
; temperature
; The Amazon
Scopus关键词: drought
; fire
; numerical model
; rainfall
; regression analysis
; risk assessment
; satellite data
; temperature
; vulnerability
; warming
; Amazonas [Brazil]
; Brazil
英文摘要: Extreme droughts and high temperatures have become more frequent in the last two decades, increasing fire risk in the Amazon. The overarching goal of this study is to shed light on the influence of temperature and rainfall on fire occurrence for the 1998–2013 period. We use a Poisson regression to model satellite-based monthly fire counts across the Brazilian Amazon as a function of observed rainfall and temperature. Specifically, in the nonlinear regression framework we explore the fire count at month t as a function of the total monthly rainfall and monthly average of maximum daily temperatures at month t as well as lagged observations of these two predictors and of the fire counts. Our results indicate that the influence of temperature on fire counts can be larger than the effects of rainfall. Considering the temperature-fire relationship, the extra variance explained by rainfall is about 9%. Assuming average rainfall, we show that a 1°C increase in the monthly average of maximum daily temperatures results in a 30% increase in fire counts (19 fires per Mha more than the average), which translates into significant changes in the likelihood of fires within the Amazon. Our findings provide new insight about the role of temperature and rainfall in regulating fire occurrence in the Amazon, and the sensitivity of fire counts to relatively small changes in temperature highlights the vulnerability of the Amazon in a warming climate, where much higher temperatures are expected by the end of this century. ©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/114720
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Brasilia, Brasilia, Brazil; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA, United States; Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Lima C.H.R.,AghaKouchak A.,Randerson J.T.. Unraveling the Role of Temperature and Rainfall on Active Fires in the Brazilian Amazon Using a Nonlinear Poisson Model[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences,2018-01-01,123(1)