DOI: 10.3354/cr01368
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85010065526
论文题名: Tree-ring based reconstruction of precipitation in the Urumqi region, China, since AD 1580 reveals changing drought signals
作者: Chen F. ; Yuan Y. ; Yu S. ; Shang H. ; Zhang T.
刊名: Climate Research
ISSN: 0936577X
出版年: 2016
卷: 68, 期: 1 起始页码: 49
结束页码: 58
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Annual precipitation reconstruction
; Dendrochronology
; NAO
; Solar activity
; Urumqi
Scopus关键词: climate effect
; dendrochronology
; drought
; hydrometeorology
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; precipitation (climatology)
; precipitation assessment
; reconstruction
; solar radiation
; sustainable development
; temporal analysis
; temporal variation
; tree ring
; China
; Tien Shan
; Urumqi
; Xinjiang Uygur
; Picea schrenkiana
英文摘要: In most cases, precipitation and drought records in central Asia extend only a few decades, hampering the detection of long-term decadal- to centennial-scale cycles and trends. However, long-term precipitation and drought series can be developed using tree-ring data, which offers researchers the ability to extend limited instrumental precipitation and drought data back several centuries. Water scarcity is the primary limiting factor in the sustainable development of Urumqi, the largest city in arid central Asia. In this study, a regional tree-ring chronology from Picea schrenkiana is used to reconstruct previous July-current June total precipitation for the Urumqi region and place the gauged precipitation (1957-2008) in a long-term, multi-century context. The precipitation reconstruction explains 52.1% of the actual precipitation variance during the common period (1957-2008) and contains a strong regional drought signal for the Tien Shan region. This reconstruction successfully captured the wetting trend that occurred from the 1980s to the 2000s and generally agreed with dry periods previously estimated from tree-ring records obtained from the surrounding areas. Moreover, a wavelet coherence analysis shows that significant common oscillations (11.5 and 60 yr) have occurred and suggests that precipitation variations across the Urumqi region were related to different climatic forcing mechanisms (i.e. solar activities and the NAO). Our precipitation reconstruction provides a long-term perspective on current wet and dry events in Urumqi, helps guide expectations of future variability, aids in sustainable water resource management and provides scenarios to address climate change planning. © Inter-Research 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116376
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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Recommended Citation:
Chen F.,Yuan Y.,Yu S.,et al. Tree-ring based reconstruction of precipitation in the Urumqi region, China, since AD 1580 reveals changing drought signals[J]. Climate Research,2016-01-01,68(1)