DOI: 10.1002/joc.6038
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85062690311
论文题名: Future changes in precipitation characteristics in China
作者: Wu S.-Y. ; Wu Y. ; Wen J.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2019
语种: 英语
英文关键词: China
; climate change
; CMIP5
; extremes
; precipitation
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric movements
; Climate models
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Water management
; Atmospheric circulation
; China
; CMIP5
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; extremes
; Precipitation characteristics
; Precipitation intensity
; Precipitation intensity distribution
; Climate change
英文摘要: This study examines potential future changes of precipitation in China based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model projections for the medium (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. We first evaluate the biases of climate model output and correct the biases through quantile mapping. After bias correction, we examine the changes in mean precipitation as well as shifts in its frequency distribution. We also evaluate the changes in extreme precipitation based on frequency analysis techniques. Our results show that by the end of the century, mean precipitation is going to increase by 8% (12%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenarios, resulted from a combination of an increase in precipitation intensity and a slight decrease in precipitation frequency. Spatially, precipitation is projected to increase more in northern China than southern China, and the increase is the least in the southeast. Seasonally, precipitation is projected to increase more in fall and winter, and less in spring and summer. The precipitation intensity distribution is likely to shift towards more heavy events, with a decrease in the contribution from light events and a significant increase in contribution from heavy events. Extreme precipitation is going to increase at much higher rates than mean precipitation, and the increase is more spatially uniform. Changes in annual and seasonal precipitation are closely linked with temperature change. Total precipitation increases at 2.6% (1.9%) per degree warming under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5), but extreme precipitation has much higher sensitivities ranging 4.5–6.5% per degree warming for events of various return intervals. The percentage increase per degree is generally smaller for RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 scenarios, suggesting a reduced sensitivity at higher temperature. In addition, the precipitation increase seems to be linked with changes in the atmospheric circulations that transport moisture in different regions in China. These changes have significant implications for the management of water resources and water-related hazards. © 2019 Royal Meteorological Society
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116601
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: Department of Geology, University of Dayton, Dayton, United States; School of Geographic and Oceanic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, China; Department of Geography, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China
Recommended Citation:
Wu S.-Y.,Wu Y.,Wen J.. Future changes in precipitation characteristics in China[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2019-01-01