DOI: 10.1002/joc.5813
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85052467894
论文题名: Prediction of summer extreme precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin
作者: Liu L. ; Ning L. ; Liu J. ; Yan M. ; Sun W.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期: 1 起始页码: 375
结束页码: 383
语种: 英语
英文关键词: extreme precipitation
; physics-based empirical model
; seasonal precipitation
Scopus关键词: Precipitation (meteorology)
; Regression analysis
; Sea level
; Surface waters
; Watersheds
; Atmospheric circulation
; Correlation coefficient
; Empirical model
; Extreme precipitation
; Middle and lower reaches of the yangtze rivers
; Northern indian oceans
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Seasonal precipitations
; Forecasting
; empirical analysis
; extreme event
; numerical model
; precipitation assessment
; prediction
; river basin
; seasonal variation
; summer
; China
; Yangtze Basin
英文摘要: Based on high-resolution observed daily precipitation data and atmospheric circulation data, a physics-based empirical model (PEM) is built for the prediction of summer extreme precipitation (SEP) over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin (MLYRB; 27°–33°N, 108°–120°E). Two preceding predictors with significant physical influences (i.e., spring sea surface temperatures [SSTs] across the northern Indian Ocean [NIO; 20°S–20°N, 50°–95°E] and sea level pressure [SLP], which was defined as spring mean SLP anomalies averaged over the western North Pacific (WNP; 30°S–30°N,120°E–150°W) minus spring mean SLP anomalies averaged over the Aleutian Islands (AIs; 50°–70°N,160°E–160°W)) are selected. Analyses of these physical mechanisms show that when spring SSTs over the NIO are higher, the South Asian High (SAH) extends to the east and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) extends to the west; therefore, the generated secondary circulation induces anomalous upward motions and increases water vapour transport to the MLYRB, which results in increased SEP. Meanwhile, the increase in SEP over the MLYRB is related to control by conditions via anticyclonic anomalies over the Philippines, which are maintained through the interaction between abnormally high WNP and dipole SST anomalies. The regression model is built over the period 1961–1999 with a correlation coefficient skill of 0.56 (p < 0.01), and the independent forecast of the PEM over the validation period 2000–2014 shows a skillful SEP prediction, with a significant correlation coefficient of 0.52 (p < 0.05). © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116683
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment, Ministry of Education, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China; State Key Laboratory of Geographical Environment Evolution, Jiangsu Provincial Cultivation Base, Nanjing, China; School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China; Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing, China; Climate System Research Center, Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Liu L.,Ning L.,Liu J.,et al. Prediction of summer extreme precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2019-01-01,39(1)