DOI: 10.1002/joc.5741
论文题名: Modelling the impacts of projected sea ice decline on the low atmosphere and near-surface permafrost on the North Slope of Alaska
作者: Cai L. ; Alexeev V.A. ; Arp C.D. ; Jones B.M. ; Romanovsky V.E.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38, 期: 15 起始页码: 5491
结束页码: 5504
语种: 英语
英文关键词: North Slope of Alaska
; permafrost warming
; regional climate change
; sea ice decline
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric humidity
; Boundary layers
; Climate change
; Permafrost
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Sea ice
; Weather forecasting
; Earth system model
; Laboratory models
; Lower atmosphere
; North Slope of Alaska
; Regional climate changes
; Surface air temperatures
; Total cloud cover
; Weather Research and Forecast models
; Ice control
; air temperature
; boundary layer
; climate change
; hydrological response
; permafrost
; regional climate
; sea ice
; sensitivity analysis
; warming
; Alaska
; Arctic Ocean
; North Slope
; United States
英文摘要: This model-based study assesses the response of the lower atmosphere and near-surface permafrost on the North Slope of Alaska to projections in sea ice decline. The Weather Research and Forecast model, with polar optimization (polar WRF), was configured for the North Slope of Alaska and the adjacent Arctic Ocean and run for two decade-long control periods, the 1970s and the 2040s. Community Earth System Model output was used to drive the polar WRF model. By swapping the sea ice coverage in the control cases, two polar WRF sensitivity experiments were designed to quantify the changes in the low atmosphere and near-surface permafrost in response to projected declines in sea ice extent. The strongest impacts of sea ice decline occur primarily during the late fall and early winter. These include increases in surface air temperature, surface humidity, total cloud cover, and precipitation amount. Future impacts of sea ice decline are projected to become weaker over time in the late fall and early winter while becoming more prominent in late spring and early summer. Projected sea ice decline also inhibits low-level cloud formation in summer as a result of destabilization of the boundary layer. Sensitivity experiments by polar WRF and Geophysical Institute Permafrost Laboratory model, respectively, suggest that sea ice decline explains approximately 20% of both the atmospheric and permafrost warmings on a mean annual basis compared to the overall projected warming under the RCP4.5 scenario. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116700
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States; Water and Environmental Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States; Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States
Recommended Citation:
Cai L.,Alexeev V.A.,Arp C.D.,et al. Modelling the impacts of projected sea ice decline on the low atmosphere and near-surface permafrost on the North Slope of Alaska[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38(15)