DOI: 10.1002/joc.5382
论文题名: Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation
作者: Baker L.H. ; Shaffrey L.C. ; Scaife A.A.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2018
卷: 38 起始页码: e437
结束页码: e453
语种: 英语
英文关键词: atmospheric circulation
; downscaling
; precipitation
; seasonal forecasting
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climatology
; Forecasting
; Linear regression
; Meteorology
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Regression analysis
; Sea level
; Atmospheric circulation
; Down-scaling
; Mean sea level pressures
; Multiple linear regression models
; North Atlantic oscillations
; Precipitation forecast
; Precipitation variability
; Seasonal forecasting
; Weather forecasting
; atmospheric circulation
; downscaling
; forecasting method
; precipitation (climatology)
; prediction
; regional climate
; regression analysis
; seasonal variation
; England
; Scotland
; United Kingdom
英文摘要: The aim of this study is to further our understanding of whether skilful seasonal forecasts of the large-scale atmospheric circulation can be downscaled to provide skilful seasonal forecasts of regional precipitation. A simple multiple linear regression model is developed to describe winter precipitation variability in nine UK regions. The model for each region is a linear combination of two mean sea-level pressure (MSLP)-based indices which are derived from the MSLP correlation patterns for precipitation in northwest Scotland and southeast England. The first index is a pressure dipole, similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation but shifted to the east; the second index is the MSLP anomaly centred over the UK. The multiple linear regression model describes up to 76% of the observed precipitation variability in each region and gives higher correlations with precipitation than using either of the two indices alone. The Met Office's seasonal forecast system (GloSea5) is found to have significant skill in forecasting the two MSLP indices for the winter season, in forecasts initialized around the start of November. Applying the multiple linear regression model to the GloSea5 hindcasts is shown to give improved skill over the precipitation forecast by the GloSea5, with the largest improvement in Scotland. © 2017 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117004
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: NCAS Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Baker L.H.,Shaffrey L.C.,Scaife A.A.. Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2018-01-01,38