DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0846.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85061003486
论文题名: Relationship between the future projections of sahel rainfall and the simulation biases of present South Asian and western North Pacific rainfall in summer
作者: Yan Y. ; Lu R. ; Li C.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2019
卷: 32, 期: 4 起始页码: 1327
结束页码: 1343
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Africa
; Climate change
; Model errors
; Monsoons
; Precipitation
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Errors
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Rain
; Africa
; Climate change adaptation
; Convective parameterization
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Historical simulation
; Model errors
; Monsoons
; Western North Pacific
; Climate change
英文摘要: Confident model projections of regional climate, in particular precipitation, could be very useful for designing climate change adaptation, particularly for vulnerable regions such as the Sahel. However, there is an extremely large uncertainty in the future Sahel rainfall projections made by current climate models. In this study, we find a close relationship between the future Sahel rainfall projections and present rainfall simulation biases in South Asia and the western North Pacific in summer, using the historical simulations and future projections of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This future-present relationship can be used to calibrate Sahel rainfall projections since historical simulation biases can be much more reliably estimated than future change. The accordingly calibrated results show a substantial increase in both precipitation and precipitation minus evaporation in the future Sahel, in comparison with the multimodel ensemble (MME) result. This relationship between the historical rainfall bias and future Sahel rainfall projection is suggested to lie with the different schemes of convective parameterization among models: some schemes tend to result in both overestimated (underestimated) historical rainfall in South Asia (the western North Pacific) and enhanced future Sahel rainfall projection, while other schemes result in the opposite. © 2019 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117210
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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Recommended Citation:
Yan Y.,Lu R.,Li C.. Relationship between the future projections of sahel rainfall and the simulation biases of present South Asian and western North Pacific rainfall in summer[J]. Journal of Climate,2019-01-01,32(4)