| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0193.1
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-85060545516
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| 论文题名: | Merits of a 108-member ensemble system in ENSO and IOD predictions |
| 作者: | Doi T.; Behera S.K.; Yamagata T.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
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| ISSN: | 8948755
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| 出版年: | 2019
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| 卷: | 32, 期:3 | | 起始页码: | 957
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| 结束页码: | 972
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Seasonal forecasting
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| Scopus关键词: | Climatology
; Losses
; Ensemble prediction systems
; Indian ocean dipoles
; Operational capabilities
; Operational systems
; Prediction systems
; Seasonal forecasting
; Seasonal forecasts
; Seasonal prediction
; Forecasting
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| 英文摘要: | This paper explores merits of 100-ensemble simulations from a single dynamical seasonal prediction system by evaluating differences in skill scores between ensembles predictions with few (~10) and many (~100) ensemble members. A 100-ensemble retrospective seasonal forecast experiment for 1983-2015 is beyond current operational capability. Prediction of extremely strong ENSO and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events is significantly improved in the larger ensemble. It indicates that the ensemble size of 10 members, used in some operational systems, is not adequate for the occurrence of 15% tails of extreme climate events, because only about 1 or 2 members (approximately 15% of 12) will agree with the observations. We also showed an ensemble size of about 50 members may be adequate for the extreme El Niño and positive IOD predictions at least in the present prediction system. Even if running a large-ensemble prediction system is quite costly, improved prediction of disastrous extreme events is useful for minimizing risks of possible human and economic losses. © 2019 American Meteorological Society. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117226
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化与战略
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Doi T.,Behera S.K.,Yamagata T.. Merits of a 108-member ensemble system in ENSO and IOD predictions[J]. Journal of Climate,2019-01-01,32(3)
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