DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0456.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85059651196
论文题名: Intermodel uncertainty in the change of ENSO's amplitude under global warming: Role of the response of atmospheric circulation to SST anomalies
作者: Ying J. ; Huang P. ; Lian T. ; Chen D.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2019
卷: 32, 期: 2 起始页码: 369
结束页码: 383
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmosphere-ocean interaction
; ENSO
; Greenhouse gases
; Tropical variability
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Amplitude changes
; Atmosphere-ocean interactions
; Atmospheric circulation
; Atmospheric response
; Eastern equatorial Pacific
; ENSO
; SST anomalies
; Tropical variability
; Oceanography
; air-sea interaction
; amplitude
; atmospheric circulation
; CMIP
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; global warming
; greenhouse gas
; sea surface temperature
; temperature anomaly
; tropical region
; uncertainty analysis
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
英文摘要: This study investigates the mechanism of the large intermodel uncertainty in the change of ENSO's amplitude under global warming based on 31 CMIP5 models. We find that the uncertainty in ENSO's amplitude is significantly correlated to that of the change in the response of atmospheric circulation to SST anomalies (SSTAs) in the eastern equatorial Pacific Niño-3 region. This effect of the atmospheric response to SSTAs mainly influences the uncertainty in ENSO's amplitude during El Niño (EN) phases, but not during La Niña (LN) phases, showing pronounced nonlinearity. The effect of the relative SST warming and the presentday response of atmospheric circulation to SSTAs are the two major contributors to the intermodel spread of the change in the atmospheric response to SSTAs, of which the latter is more important. On the one hand, models with a stronger (weaker) mean-state SST warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific, relative to the tropical-mean warming, favor a larger (smaller) increase in the change in the response of atmospheric circulation to SSTAs in the eastern equatorial Pacific during EN. On the other hand, models with a weaker (stronger) present-day response of atmospheric circulation to SSTAs during EN tend to exhibit a larger (smaller) increase in the change under global warming. The result implies that an improved simulation of the present-day response of atmospheric circulation to SSTAs could be effective in lowering the uncertainty in ENSO's amplitude change under global warming. © 2018 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117243
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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Recommended Citation:
Ying J.,Huang P.,Lian T.,et al. Intermodel uncertainty in the change of ENSO's amplitude under global warming: Role of the response of atmospheric circulation to SST anomalies[J]. Journal of Climate,2019-01-01,32(2)