DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0598.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85059636175
论文题名: Tendency bias correction in coupled and uncoupled global climate models with a focus on impacts over North America
作者: Chang Y. ; Schubert S.D. ; Koster R.D. ; Molod A.M. ; Wang H.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2019
卷: 32, 期: 2 起始页码: 639
结束页码: 661
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bias
; Climate models
; Model errors
; Model evaluation/performance
; Reanalysis data
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Errors
; Forecasting
; NASA
; Oceanography
; Atmospheric reanalysis data
; Bias
; Data assimilation
; Global climate model
; Model errors
; Model evaluation/performance
; Reanalysis
; Seasonal forecasts
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; CMIP
; correction
; data assimilation
; global climate
; sea surface temperature
; seasonal variation
; Great Plains
英文摘要: We revisit the bias correction problem in current climate models, taking advantage of state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis data and new data assimilation tools that simplify the estimation of short-term (6 hourly) atmospheric tendency errors. The focus is on the extent to which correcting biases in atmospheric tendencies improves the model's climatology, variability, and ultimately forecast skill at subseasonal and seasonal time scales. Results are presented for the NASA GMAO GEOS model in both uncoupled (atmosphere only) and coupled (atmosphere-ocean) modes. For the uncoupled model, the focus is on correcting a stunted North Pacific jet and a dry bias over the central United States during boreal summer-long-standing errors that are indeed common to many current AGCMs. The results show that the tendency bias correction (TBC) eliminates the jet bias and substantially increases the precipitation over the Great Plains. These changes are accompanied by much improved (increased) storm-track activity throughout the northern midlatitudes. For the coupled model, the atmospheric TBCs produce substantial improvements in the simulated mean climate and its variability, including a much reduced SST warm bias, more realistic ENSO-related SST variability and teleconnections, and much improved subtropical jets and related submonthly transient wave activity. Despite these improvements, the improvement in subseasonal and seasonal forecast skill over North America is only modest at best. The reasons for this, which are presumably relevant to any forecast system, involve the competing influences of predictability loss with time and the time it takes for climate drift to first have a significant impact on forecast skill. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/117247
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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Recommended Citation:
Chang Y.,Schubert S.D.,Koster R.D.,et al. Tendency bias correction in coupled and uncoupled global climate models with a focus on impacts over North America[J]. Journal of Climate,2019-01-01,32(2)