DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.11.005
论文题名: Lead–lag relationships between global mean temperature and the atmospheric CO2 content in dependence of the type and time scale of the forcing
作者: Muryshev K.E. ; Eliseev A.V. ; Mokhov I.I. ; Timazhev A.V.
刊名: Global and Planetary Change
ISSN: 0921-8181
出版年: 2017
卷: 148 起始页码: 29
结束页码: 41
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change origins
; Climate–carbon cycle interactions
; IAP RAS CM
; Mutual lags
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Atmospheric temperature
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate models
; Earth (planet)
; Geophysics
; Soil conservation
; Time measurement
; Carbon cycles
; Earth system model of intermediate complexity
; Emissions into the atmosphere
; Global-mean temperature
; Mutual lags
; Russian Academy of Sciences
; Surface air temperatures
; Temperature sensitivity
; Climate change
英文摘要: By employing an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM), mutual lags between global mean surface air temperature, T and the atmospheric CO2 content, q, in dependence of the type and time scale of the external forcing are explored. In the simulation, which follows the protocol of the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, phase 5, T leads q for volcanically-induced climate variations. In contrast, T lags behind q for changes caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. In additional idealized numerical experiments, driven by periodic external emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, T always lags behind q as expected. In contrast, if the model is driven by the periodic non-greenhouse radiative forcing, T leads q for the external forcing time scale ≤4 ×102 yr, while q leads T at longer scales. The latter is an example that lagged correlations do not necessarily represent causal relationships in a system. This apparently counter-intuitive result, however, is a direct consequence of i) temperature sensitivity of the soil carbon stock (which decreases if climate is warmed and increases if climate is cooled), ii) conservation of total mass of carbon in the system in the absence of external carbon emissions, iii) increased importance of the oceanic branch of the carbon cycle at longer time scales. The results obtained with an EMIC are further interpreted with a conceptual Earth system model consisting of an energy balance climate model and a globally averaged carbon cycle model. The obtained results have implications to the empirical studies attempting to understand the origins of the contemporary climate change by applying lead–lag relationships to empirical data. © 2016 Elsevier B.V. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84997190897&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2016.11.005&partnerID=40&md5=9c864b3b9cc4263d42c8a71d411ca819
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11790
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation
Recommended Citation:
Muryshev K.E.,Eliseev A.V.,Mokhov I.I.,et al. Lead–lag relationships between global mean temperature and the atmospheric CO2 content in dependence of the type and time scale of the forcing[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2017-01-01,148.