DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.12.003
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85058547701
论文题名: Population exposed to drought under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming in the Indus River Basin
作者: Wen S. ; Wang A. ; Tao H. ; Malik K. ; Huang J. ; Zhai J. ; Jing C. ; Rasul G. ; Su B.
刊名: Atmospheric Research
ISSN: 1698095
出版年: 2019
卷: 218 起始页码: 296
结束页码: 305
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Drought
; Indus River Basin
; Intensity-Area-Duration
; Population Exposure
; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Evapotranspiration
; Global warming
; Rivers
; Watersheds
; Climate policy
; Global climate model
; Indus river basin
; Intensity-Area-Duration
; Population exposure
; Projected dynamics
; Research results
; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
; Drought
; climate effect
; drought
; environmental policy
; evapotranspiration
; global warming
; precipitation assessment
; river basin
; socioeconomic conditions
; Indus Basin
英文摘要: Based on multiple global climate models (GCMs), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Intensity-Area-Duration (IAD) method were used to identify drought events of the Indus River Basin (IRB) in the reference period (1986–2005) and under 1.5 °C (2020–2039 in RCP2.6) and 2.0 °C (2040–2059 in RCP4.5) global warming scenarios. Then, the population exposure was assessed by combining drought events with a projected dynamic population amount from five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), in which describe future of societal development considering the effects of climate change and climate policies. Research results show that both precipitation and evapotranspiration are projected to increase with global warming. Due to a higher increase in evapotranspiration than in precipitation, frequency, intensity, and areal coverage of drought events in the IRB are expected to increase under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios relative to the 1986–2005 reference period. In particular, frequency and areal coverage of extreme severe droughts will increase significantly. With aggravation of droughts across the IRB, annual population exposure will increase considerably from 43.2 million in 1986-2005 to approximately 114.4 million based on SSP1 (a sustainable world) under the 1.5 °C global warming scenario and will reach 163.1 million based on SSP3 (a strongly fragmented world) under the 2.0 °C scenario. Compared with the 2.0 °C level, maintaining the increase in global average temperature below the 1.5 °C limit can reduce the population exposed to drought by approximately 1.4-fold. © 2018 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/122336
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Institute for Disaster Risk Management, School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang, 830011, China; China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center, Beijing, 10081, China; Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
Recommended Citation:
Wen S.,Wang A.,Tao H.,et al. Population exposed to drought under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming in the Indus River Basin[J]. Atmospheric Research,2019-01-01,218