globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85044469658
论文题名:
Consistency of climate change projections from multiple global and regional model intercomparison projects
作者: Fernández J.; Frías M.D.; Cabos W.D.; Cofiño A.S.; Domínguez M.; Fita L.; Gaertner M.A.; García-Díez M.; Gutiérrez J.M.; Jiménez-Guerrero P.; Liguori G.; Montávez J.P.; Romera R.; Sánchez E.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 期:2019-01-02
起始页码: 1139
结束页码: 1156
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CORDEX ; ENSEMBLES ; ESCENA ; Near surface temperature ; precipitation ; Regional climate change
英文摘要: We present an unprecedented ensemble of 196 future climate projections arising from different global and regional model intercomparison projects (MIPs): CMIP3, CMIP5, ENSEMBLES, ESCENA, EURO- and Med-CORDEX. This multi-MIP ensemble includes all regional climate model (RCM) projections publicly available to date, along with their driving global climate models (GCMs). We illustrate consistent and conflicting messages using continental Spain and the Balearic Islands as target region. The study considers near future (2021–2050) changes and their dependence on several uncertainty sources sampled in the multi-MIP ensemble: GCM, future scenario, internal variability, RCM, and spatial resolution. This initial work focuses on mean seasonal precipitation and temperature changes. The results show that the potential GCM–RCM combinations have been explored very unevenly, with favoured GCMs and large ensembles of a few RCMs that do not respond to any ensemble design. Therefore, the grand-ensemble is weighted towards a few models. The selection of a balanced, credible sub-ensemble is challenged in this study by illustrating several conflicting responses between the RCM and its driving GCM and among different RCMs. Sub-ensembles from different initiatives are dominated by different uncertainty sources, being the driving GCM the main contributor to uncertainty in the grand-ensemble. For this analysis of the near future changes, the emission scenario does not lead to a strong uncertainty. Despite the extra computational effort, for mean seasonal changes, the increase in resolution does not lead to important changes. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/122447
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Grupo de Meteorología y Computación, Dpto. Matemática Aplicada y Ciencias de la Computación, Universidad de Cantabria, Avda. de los Castros, s/n, Santander, 39005, Spain; Dpto. Física y Matemática, Universidad de Alcalá, Madrid, 28805, Spain; Predictia Intelligent Data Solutions, Santander, 39005, Spain; Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Avda. Carlos III s/n, Toledo, 45071, Spain; Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), CONICET-UBA, CNRS UMI-IFAECI, Buenos Aires, Argentina; Grupo de Meteorología, Instituto de Física de Cantabria (IFCA), CSIC-Universidad de Cantabria, Avda. de los Castros, s/n, Santander, 39005, Spain; Dpto. Física, Campus de Excelencia Internacional Mare Nostrum, Universidad de Murcia, Murcia, 30100, Spain

Recommended Citation:
Fernández J.,Frías M.D.,Cabos W.D.,et al. Consistency of climate change projections from multiple global and regional model intercomparison projects[J]. Climate Dynamics,2019-01-01,52(2019-01-02)
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