We consider the interplay of climate change impacts, global mitigation policies, and the economic interests of developing countries to 2050. Focusing on Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, we employ a structural approach to biophysical and economic modeling that incorporates climate uncertainty and allows for rigorous comparison of climate, biophysical, and economic outcomes across global mitigation regimes. We find that effective global mitigation policies generate two sources of benefit. First, less distorted climate outcomes result in typically more favorable and less variable economic outcomes. Second, successful global mitigation policies reduce global fossil fuel producer prices, relative to unconstrained emissions, providing a substantial terms of trade boost of structural fuel importers. Combined, these gains are on the order of or greater than estimates of mitigation costs. These results highlight the interests of most developing countries in effective global mitigation policies, even in the relatively near term, with much larger benefits post-2050.
1.Int Food Policy Res Inst, Environm & Prod Technol Div, 1201 Eye St NW, Washington, DC 20005 USA 2.Univ Colorado, Civil Syst Environm & Architectural Engn, UCB 428, Boulder, CO 80309 USA 3.Ind Econ Inc, 2067 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02140 USA 4.MIT, Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change, 77 Massachusetts Ave,E19-429F, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA 5.United Nations Univ, World Inst Dev Econ Res, Katajanokanlaituri 6 B, FI-00160 Helsinki, Finland 6.Int Food Policy Res Inst, Dev Strategies & Governance Div, 1201 Eye St NW, Washington, DC 20005 USA
Recommended Citation:
Arndt, Channing,Chinowsky, Paul,Fant, Charles,et al. Climate change and developing country growth: the cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019-01-01,154(3-4):335-349