CMIP5
; INDIA
; PROJECTIONS
; SIMULATIONS
; TEMPERATURE
; STREAMFLOW
; SCENARIOS
; SELECTION
; ENSEMBLE
; RANKING
WOS学科分类:
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向:
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:
Climate scenarios derived from the global climate models (GCMs) are used for climate change impact studies in several sectors including agriculture, hydrological, and health. Globally, more than 50 climate models exist and choosing suitable models based on reproducibility of observed weather for a study region is a challenging task. This step is important to reduce uncertainty. This study compared the simulation performance of 12 global climate models for temperatures and rainfall in past 30years over Indian region. For this, Priority index from Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and Reliability index were used and both methods were compared. Study revealed all 12 models overestimated minimum and maximum temperatures in most regions of India, which resulted in hot bias especially in northern region. However, models showed significant cold bias for the Himalayan region. In general, simulated rainfall was underestimated by many GCMs. The analysis indicated that FAHP method is good to shortlist GCMs based on their spatial and temporal performance in reproducing observed weather. Among 12 models, NORESM1 model has performed better in reproducing maximum temperature. The IPSL-LR, FIO-ESM, GFDL-CM3, and MIROC5 models have performed better for minimum temperature. In case of rainfall, CSIRO, MIROC5, HADGEM2, GFDL-ESM2M, and IPSL-LR have performed better as compared to other models.
1.Indian Agr Res Inst, Ctr Environm Sci & Climate Resilient Agr, New Delhi 110012, India 2.Amity Univ, AmityInst Informat Technol, Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India 3.ICAR Res Complex, KAB II, New Delhi 110012, India
Recommended Citation:
Panjwani, Shweta,Kumar, S. Naresh,Ahuja, Laxmi,et al. Prioritization of global climate models using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and reliability index[J]. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,137(3-4):2381-2392