globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14512
WOS记录号: WOS:000456028900008
论文题名:
Twenty-first-century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins
作者: Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea1; Tittensor, Derek P.1,2; Blanchard, Julia L.3; Cheung, William W. L.4; Coll, Marta5,6; Galbraith, Eric D.7,8; Jennings, Simon9,10,11; Maury, Olivier12,13; Lotze, Heike K.1
通讯作者: Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea
刊名: GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
ISSN: 1354-1013
EISSN: 1365-2486
出版年: 2019
卷: 25, 期:2, 页码:459-472
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change ; ensemble modeling ; future projection ; marine animal biomass ; marine ecosystem models ; model intercomparison ; ocean basins ; uncertainty
WOS关键词: OXYGEN LIMITATION ; GLOBAL OCEAN ; FISHERIES ; MODEL ; BIOGEOGRAPHY ; COMMUNITIES ; PROJECTIONS ; COASTAL
WOS学科分类: Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Climate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions, and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio-economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery-dependent societies. Yet how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six marine ecosystem models within the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP) to analyze responses of marine animal biomass in all major ocean basins to contrasting climate change scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total marine animal biomass declined by an ensemble mean of 15%-30% (+/- 12%-17%) in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific, and the Indian Ocean by 2100, whereas polar ocean basins experienced a 20%-80% (+/- 35%-200%) increase. Uncertainty and model disagreement were greatest in the Arctic and smallest in the South Pacific Ocean. Projected changes were reduced under a low (RCP2.6) emissions scenario. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, biomass projections were highly correlated with changes in net primary production and negatively correlated with projected sea surface temperature increases across all ocean basins except the polar oceans. Ecosystem structure was projected to shift as animal biomass concentrated in different size-classes across ocean basins and emissions scenarios. We highlight that climate change mitigation measures could moderate the impacts on marine animal biomass by reducing biomass declines in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. The range of individual model projections emphasizes the importance of using an ensemble approach in assessing uncertainty of future change.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/128291
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Dalhousie Univ, Dept Biol, Halifax, NS, Canada
2.United Nations Environm Programme World Conserva, Cambridge, England
3.Univ Tasmania, Ctr Marine Socioecol, Inst Marine & Antarctic Studies, Hobart, Tas, Australia
4.Univ British Columbia, Inst Oceans & Fisheries, Nippon Fdn UBC Nereus Program & Changing Ocean Re, Vancouver, BC, Canada
5.CSIC, ICM, Barcelona, Spain
6.Ecopath Int Initiat, Barcelona, Spain
7.ICREA, Barcelona, Spain
8.Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Inst Ciencia & Tecnol Ambientals ICTA, Dept Math, Barcelona, Spain
9.CEFAS, Lowestoft Lab, Lowestoft, Suffolk, England
10.Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich, Norfolk, England
11.Int Council Explorat Sea, Copenhagen V, Denmark
12.IRD, UMR 248 MARBEC, Paris, France
13.Univ Cape Town, Int Lab, ICEMASA, Rondebosch, South Africa

Recommended Citation:
Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea,Tittensor, Derek P.,Blanchard, Julia L.,et al. Twenty-first-century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2019-01-01,25(2):459-472
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