Impermanence is an ecological principle(1) but there are times when changes occur nonlinearly as abrupt community shifts (ACSs) that transform the ecosystem state and the goods and services it provides(2). Here, we present a model based on niche theory(3) to explain and predict ACSs at the global scale. We test our model using 14 multi-decadal time series of marine metazoans from zooplankton to fish, spanning all latitudes and the shelf to the open ocean. Predicted and observed fluctuations correspond, with both identifying ACSs at the end of the 1980s(4-7) and 1990s(5,8). We show that these ACSs coincide with changes in climate that alter local thermal regimes, which in turn interact with the thermal niche of species to trigger long-term and sometimes abrupt shifts at the community level. A large-scale ACS is predicted after 2014-unprecedented in magnitude and extent-coinciding with a strong El Nino event and major shifts in Northern Hemisphere climate. Our results underline the sensitivity of the Arctic Ocean, where unprecedented melting may reorganize biological communities(5,9), and suggest an increase in the size and consequences of ACS events in a warming world.
1.Univ Littoral Cote dOpale, Univ Lille, CNRS,LOG, Lab Oceanol & Geosci,Stn Marine Wimereux,UMR 8187, Wimereux, France 2.Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey, Marine Biol Assoc, Citadel Hill Lab, Plymouth, Devon, England 3.CNR, Ist Sci Marine, Lerici, Italy 4.Plymouth Marine Lab, Plymouth, Devon, England 5.US Geol Survey, 345 Middlefield Rd, Menlo Pk, CA 94025 USA 6.Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol, Res & Dev Ctr Global Change, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan 7.Univ Trieste, Dept Life Sci, Trieste, Italy 8.Secchi Disk Fdn, Plymouth, Devon, England 9.Cornell Univ, Ocean Resources & Ecosyst Program, Ithaca, NY USA 10.Univ Antilles, Univ Caen Normandie, Sorbonne Univ, BOREA,MNHN,CNRS,IRD,CP53, Paris, France 11.Univ Hamburg, Ctr Earth Syst Res & Sustainabil, Inst Marine Ecosyst & Fishery Sci, Hamburg, Germany 12.Sorbonne Univ, Inst Mer Villefranche, CNRS, Lab Oceanog Villefranche,UMR 7093, Villefranche Sur Mer, France
Recommended Citation:
Beaugrand, G.,Conversi, A.,Atkinson, A.,et al. Prediction of unprecedented biological shifts in the global ocean[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2019-01-01,9(3):237-+