globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5870
WOS记录号: WOS:000461606600003
论文题名:
High-resolution regional climate model projections of future tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines
作者: Gallo, Florian1; Daron, Joseph1; Macadam, Ian2; Cinco, Thelma3; Villafuerte, Marcelino, II3; Buonomo, Erasmo1; Tucker, Simon1; Hein-Griggs, David1,4; Jones, Richard G.1
通讯作者: Daron, Joseph
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN: 0899-8418
EISSN: 1097-0088
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期:3, 页码:1181-1194
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate projections ; regional climate model ; tropical cyclones
WOS关键词: INTENSITY ; CMIP5 ; SIMULATIONS ; VARIABILITY ; DEPENDENCE
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

The Philippines is one of the most exposed countries in the world to tropical cyclones. In order to provide information to help the country build resilience and plan for a future under a warmer climate, we build on previous research to investigate implications of future climate change on tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines. Experiments were conducted using three regional climate models with horizontal resolutions of approximately 12 km (HadGEM3-RA) and 25 km (HadRM3P and RegCM4). The simulations are driven by boundary data from a subset of global climate model simulations from the CMIP5 ensemble. Here we present the experimental design, the methodology for selecting CMIP5 models, the results of the model validation, and future projections of changes to tropical cyclone frequency and intensity by the mid-21st century. The models used are shown to represent the key climatological features of tropical cyclones across the domain, including the seasonality and general distribution of intensities, but issues remain in resolving very intense tropical cyclones and simulating realistic trajectories across their life-cycles. Acknowledging model inadequacies and uncertainties associated with future climate model projections, the results show a range of plausible changes with a tendency for fewer but slightly more intense tropical cyclones. These results are consistent with the basin-wide results reported in the IPCC AR5 and provide clear evidence that the findings from these previous studies are applicable in the Philippines region.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/132032
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Met Off, Exeter, Devon, England
2.UNSW Sydney, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Sydney, NSW, Australia
3.Philippine Atmospher Geophys & Astron Serv Adm, Quezon City, Philippines
4.Univ Exeter, Exeter, Devon, England

Recommended Citation:
Gallo, Florian,Daron, Joseph,Macadam, Ian,et al. High-resolution regional climate model projections of future tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,39(3):1181-1194
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