globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1016/j.apor.2019.01.031
WOS记录号: WOS:000461264500005
论文题名:
A simplified hindcast method for the estimation of extreme storm surge events in semi-enclosed basins
作者: Pasquali, D.1; Bruno, M. F.2; Celli, D.2; Damiani, L.2; Di Risio, M.1
通讯作者: Pasquali, D.
刊名: APPLIED OCEAN RESEARCH
ISSN: 0141-1187
EISSN: 1879-1549
出版年: 2019
卷: 85, 页码:45-52
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Storm surge ; Physics-based model ; Sea level hindcast ; ROMS ; Coastal flooding risk ; Climate change
WOS关键词: SEA-LEVEL ; EVOLUTION ; MODEL ; VARIABILITY ; PREDICTION ; SEDIMENT ; SEICHE ; GULF
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Ocean ; Oceanography
WOS研究方向: Engineering ; Oceanography
英文摘要:

Human presence, coastal erosion, and tourism activities are increasing the attention to coastal flooding risk. To perform risk assessments, long time series of observed or hindcast wave parameters and tide levels are then necessary. In some cases, only a few years of observation are available, so that observed extreme data are not always representative and reliable. A hindcast system aimed to reconstruct long time series of total tide levels may be of great help to perform robust extreme events analysis and then to protect human life, activities as well as to counteract coastal erosion by means of risk assessments. This work aims to propose a simplified method to hindcast storm surge levels time series in semi-enclosed basins with low computational costs. The method is an extension of a previous work of some of the authors and consists of a mixed approach in which the estimation of storm surge obtained by using the theory of linear dynamic system is corrected by using a statistical method. Both steps are characterized by low computational costs. Nevertheless, the results may be considered reliable enough also in view of the simplicity of the approach. The proposed method has been applied to the Manfredonia case study, a small village located in the Southern Adriatic Italian coast and often prone to coastal flooding events. The comparison of extreme events estimated on the basis of hindcast levels time series is satisfactorily similar to those estimated on the basis of observed tide series.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/133660
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Univ Aquila, Dept Civil Construct Architectural & Environm Eng, Environm & Maritime Hydraul Lab LIam, Ple Pontieri 1, I-67040 Laquila, Italy
2.Tech Univ Bari, Dept Civil Environm Bldg Engn & Chem DICATECh, Coastal Engn Lab, Area Univ Valenzano SP Valenzano Casamassima, Km 3, I-70010 Bari, Italy

Recommended Citation:
Pasquali, D.,Bruno, M. F.,Celli, D.,et al. A simplified hindcast method for the estimation of extreme storm surge events in semi-enclosed basins[J]. APPLIED OCEAN RESEARCH,2019-01-01,85:45-52
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