globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1029/2018EF001103
WOS记录号: WOS:000474508700001
论文题名:
Drought Occurring With Hot Extremes: Changes Under Future Climate Change on Loess Plateau, China
作者: Sun, C. X.1; Huang, G. H.2; Fan, Y.3; Zhou, X.4; Lu, C.4; Wang, X. Q.5
通讯作者: Huang, G. H. ; Fan, Y.
刊名: EARTHS FUTURE
ISSN: 2328-4277
出版年: 2019
卷: 7, 期:6, 页码:587-604
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: HYDROLOGIC RISK ANALYSIS ; DATA ASSIMILATION ; PRECIPITATION ; INDEXES ; TEMPERATURE ; PROJECTIONS ; EVOLUTION ; PARAMETER ; VARIABLES ; COPULAS
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Drought is one of the most widespread and destructive hazards over the Loess Plateau (LP) of China. Due to climate change, extremely high temperature accompanied with drought (expressed as hot drought) may lead to intensive losses of both properties and human deaths in future. A hot drought probabilistic recognition system is developed to investigate how potential future climate changes will impact the simultaneous occurrence of drought and hot extremes (hot days exceeding certain values) on the LP. Two regional climate models, coupled with multiple bias-correction techniques and multivariate probabilistic inference, are innovative integrated into the hot drought probabilistic recognition system to reveal the concurrence risk of droughts and hot extremes under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The hot-day index, TX90p, indicating the number of days with daily maximum temperature (T-max) exceeding the 90th percentile threshold, and the Standardized Precipitation Index are applied to identify the joint risks on the LP using copula-based methods. The results show that precipitation will increase throughout most of the LP under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios of 2036-2095, while T-max may increase significantly all over the LP (1.8-2.7 degrees C for RCP4.5 and 2.7-3.6 degrees C for RCP8.5). The joint return periods of Standardized Precipitation Index and TX90p show that fewer stations will experience severe drought with long-term hot extremes in two future scenarios. However, some stations may experience hot droughts that are more frequent and extreme, particularly certain stations in the southwest and south-central regions of the LP with recurrence period less than 10 years.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/139355
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: 1.North China Elect Power Univ, Key Lab Reg Energy & Environm Syst Optimizat, Minist Educ, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Beijing Normal Univ, Ctr Energy Environm & Ecol Res, UR BNU, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Brunel Univ, Coll Engn Design & Phys Sci, London, England
4.Univ Regina, Fac Engn & Appl Sci, Regina, SK, Canada
5.Univ Prince Edward Isl, Sch Climate Change & Adaptat, Charlottetown, PE, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Sun, C. X.,Huang, G. H.,Fan, Y.,et al. Drought Occurring With Hot Extremes: Changes Under Future Climate Change on Loess Plateau, China[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2019-01-01,7(6):587-604
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