globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0555-0
WOS记录号: WOS:000483551700016
论文题名:
Summer weather becomes more persistent in a 2 degrees C world
作者: Pfleiderer, Peter1,2,3; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich1,2,3; Kornhuber, Kai4,5,6; Coumou, Dim2,7
通讯作者: Pfleiderer, Peter
刊名: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
ISSN: 1758-678X
EISSN: 1758-6798
出版年: 2019
卷: 9, 期:9, 页码:666-+
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: TEMPERATURE ; CIRCULATION ; EXTREMES ; WET
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Heat and rainfall extremes have intensified over the past few decades and this trend is projected to continue with future global warming(1-3). A long persistence of extreme events often leads to societal impacts with warm-and-dry conditions severely affecting agriculture and consecutive days of heavy rainfall leading to flooding. Here we report systematic increases in the persistence of boreal summer weather in a multi-model analysis of a world 2 degrees C above pre-industrial compared to present-day climate. Averaged over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude land area, the probability of warm periods lasting longer than two weeks is projected to increase by 4% (2-6% full uncertainty range) after removing seasonal-mean warming. Compound dry-warm persistence increases at a similar magnitude on average but regionally up to 20% (11-42%) in eastern North America. The probability of at least seven consecutive days of strong precipitation increases by 26% (15-37%) for the mid-latitudes. We present evidence that weakening storm track activity contributes to the projected increase in warm and dry persistence. These changes in persistence are largely avoided when warming is limited to 1.5 degrees C. In conjunction with the projected intensification of heat and rainfall extremes, an increase in persistence can substantially worsen the effects of future weather extremes.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/146140
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Climate Analyt, Berlin, Germany
2.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Earth Syst Anal, Potsdam, Germany
3.Humboldt Univ, IRI THESys, Berlin, Germany
4.Columbia Univ, Earth Inst, New York, NY USA
5.Univ Oxford, Atmospher Ocean & Planetary Phys, Oxford, England
6.Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England
7.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Water & Climate Risk, IVM, Amsterdam, Netherlands

Recommended Citation:
Pfleiderer, Peter,Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich,Kornhuber, Kai,et al. Summer weather becomes more persistent in a 2 degrees C world[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2019-01-01,9(9):666-+
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