The Impact of Climate Change on China's Maize Production and Consumption Under Considering the CO_2 Fertilization EffectBased on the Agriculture CGE Model of China
To study the effect of climate change influenced corn yield on the national grain production and Socioeconomic sectors, the study used a computable general equilibrium model, took the corn yield that was affected by climate change considering the fertilization effect of carbon dioxide as policy simulation scheme and constructed the base to simulate climate change effects on China's maize production and consumption. The result showed: (1) To 2050, under the high emissions scenario (A2), the total maize production would be 235813 kt, and the total consumption demand would be 270800 kt, while under the low emissions scenario (B2), the total maize production would be 242418 kt, and the total consumption demand would be 238435 kt, the supply of maize exceeded its demand under the high emissions scenario (A2), on the contrary, the supply slightly bigger than the demand under the B2 scenario. (2) The climate change would have a beneficial influence on China s macro economy and sectors, compared with base period, real wages, real GDP, investment and household consumption, export and other macro indicators would all increase. On the whole, both under A2 and B2 scenarios, the results could be the growth of corn supply and reduction of corn import, the quantity of increased supply would be larger than that of demand. Therefore, considering the fertilization effect of carbon dioxide, climate change would strengthen the corn supply and have favorable implications for corn security.