globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6472783
论文题名:
基于统计降尺度方法的长江中下游气温的模拟与预估
其他题名: Simulation and estimation of temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River based on statistical downscaling method
作者: 沈成; 束炯
刊名: 安徽农业大学学报
ISSN: 1672-352X
出版年: 2019
卷: 46, 期:1, 页码:792-801
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 统计降尺度 ; 长江中下游 ; 温度 ; 主成分分析
英文关键词: statistical downscaling method ; the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River ; temperature ; PCA
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 目前大部分全球气候模式(GCM)空间分辨率比较低,很难对区域尺度气候变化做出合理预测。降尺度方法的广泛运用弥补了GCM在这方面的不足。采用主成分分析和逐步回归相结合的统计降尺度方法对1980-2011年1月和7月长江中下游地区气温变化进行统计降尺度处理,并对该地区未来温度的变化进行预估。首先采用ECMWF的ERA-Interim再分析资料和实测资料建立逐月的统计降尺度模型,然后将建立的统计降尺度模型运用到CMIP5资料中,从而生成长江中下游地区各个测站未来气温变化序列。研究结果表明:(1)统计降尺度方法模拟1月和7月的温度与实测温度一致性都很好;(2)在21世纪末的时候气温在不同排放情景下都高于目前温度2~3℃,并且7月份的增温幅度要大于1月份。
英文摘要: It is difficult to make reasonable predictions of climate change on regional scale by Global Climate Models (GCM) due to low spatial resolution.Now downscaling method has been widely used to make up for these defects of GCM.The temperature changes in the future in Yangtze River middle and lower reaches were predicted based on the temperature data in January and July from 1980 to 2011 statistic treatments with downscaling method combining stepwise linear regression (SLR) and principal component analysis (PCA).A monthly statistical downscaling model was formulated based on gridded data of ERA_interim from ECMWF reanalysis data and observed data,then apply it to the CMIP5 data to generate the series of temperature changes in future in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.The results showed that:(1) the simulated January and July temperature with statistical downscaling method was in good agreement with the observed temperature;(2) By the end of the 21st century,temperatures in January and July will both increase by 2-3℃ and the latter warm more intense under the different scenarios,and the increment of temperature of July will greater than that of January.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/155484
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 华东师范大学地理科学学院, 教育部地理信息科学重点实验室, 上海 200241, 中国

Recommended Citation:
沈成,束炯. 基于统计降尺度方法的长江中下游气温的模拟与预估[J]. 安徽农业大学学报,2019-01-01,46(1):792-801
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