DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135335
论文题名: Musk deer (Moschus spp.) face redistribution to higher elevations and latitudes under climate change in China
作者: Jiang F. ; Zhang J. ; Gao H. ; Cai Z. ; Zhou X. ; Li S. ; Zhang T.
刊名: Science of the Total Environment
ISSN: 489697
出版年: 2020
卷: 704 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Barycenter migration
; Climate change
; Ecological niche
; Fluctuation range
; Maximum entropy model
; Musk deer
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Conservation
; Digital storage
; Ecosystems
; Forestry
; Global warming
; Maximum entropy methods
; Barycenters
; Ecological niche
; Fluctuation range
; Maximum entropy modeling
; Musk deer
; Climate models
; climate change
; deer
; endangered species
; environmental factor
; global warming
; maximum entropy analysis
; niche
; population decline
; size distribution
; article
; China
; climate change
; controlled study
; ecological niche
; entropy
; forest
; global climate
; greenhouse effect
; habitat
; latitude
; Moschus
; nonhuman
; animal
; China
; deer
; ecosystem
; endangered species
; ruminant
; Himalayas
; Moschidae
; Moschus
; Moschus chrysogaster
; Moschus moschiferus
; Animals
; China
; Climate Change
; Deer
; Ecosystem
; Endangered Species
; Ruminants
英文摘要: The population of wild musk deer (Moschus spp.) has declined in recent decades and reached an endangered status in China. Global climate change may drive the extinction rate of these species. To understand the implications of global warming on the future potential space utilization and migration direction of musk deer, both the maximum entropy model and barycenter migration analysis were utilized. Five global climate models and four representative concentration pathway scenarios were considered to simulate the distribution of six species for the years 2050 and 2070. The results indicated that the suitable habitat area would decrease over the next 30 to 50 years. These decreases of suitable habitat were more significant for the Siberian musk deer (reduced by 4.98% of the land area of China), the forest musk deer (1.04%), the black musk deer (0.86%), and the Himalayan musk deer (1.82%) compared with the other two musk deer species. The area with suitable climate for the Siberian musk deer will migrate to the southwest (to higher elevations) while areas suitable for the Alpine musk deer, the Himalayan musk deer, and the Anhui musk deer would all migrate to the northeast (to higher latitudes). However, the forest musk deer and the black musk deer will not migrate in the same direction, but will mainly migrate to the west and the north, respectively. These results provide data in support for in-situ conservation, ex-situ conservation, natural reserve community, and bio-corridor construction of China's musk deer species in response to global warming. © 2019 The Author(s) Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159219
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Adaptation and Evolution of Plateau Biota, Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xining, Qinghai 810001, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China; Qinghai Provincial Key Laboratory of Animal Ecological Genomics, Xining, Qinghai 810001, China; Lanzhou Zoo, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China; Qinghai Academy of Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine, Qinghai University, Xining, Qinghai 810016, China
Recommended Citation:
Jiang F.,Zhang J.,Gao H.,et al. Musk deer (Moschus spp.) face redistribution to higher elevations and latitudes under climate change in China[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2020-01-01,704