DOI: 10.1029/2019WR026275
论文题名: Is Past Variability a Suitable Proxy for Future Change? A Virtual Catchment Experiment
作者: Stephens C.M. ; Marshall L.A. ; Johnson F.M. ; Lin L. ; Band L.E. ; Ajami H.
刊名: Water Resources Research
ISSN: 431397
出版年: 2020
卷: 56, 期: 2 语种: 英语
英文关键词: catchment response
; climate change
; ecohydrologic modelling
; model robustness
; RHESSys
Scopus关键词: Carbon dioxide
; Catchments
; Climate change
; Global warming
; Runoff
; Catchment response
; Climate change scenarios
; Environmental dynamics
; Increased temperature
; Model robustness
; Precipitation change
; RHESSys
; Subsurface hydrology
; Climate models
; carbon dioxide
; catchment
; climate change
; ecohydrology
; hydrological modeling
; performance assessment
; runoff
; simulation
; streamflow
英文摘要: To estimate the robustness of hydrologic models under projected future climate change, researchers test transferability between climatically contrasting observed periods. This approach can only assess the performance changes induced by altered precipitation and related environmental dynamics (e.g., greening under wet conditions), since the instrumental record does not contain temperatures or carbon dioxide levels that are similar to future climate change projections. Additionally, there is an inherent assumption that long-term persistence of changes in precipitation will not further impact catchment response. In this study, we undertake a series of virtual catchment experiments using an ecohydrologic model that simulates dynamic vegetation growth, nutrient cycling, and subsurface hydrology. These experiments explore a number of climate change scenarios. We compare simulations based on persistent altered climate states against simulations designed to represent historical periods with the same precipitation but limited time for ecohydrologic adaptation. We find that persistence of precipitation changes as well as increased temperature and elevated carbon dioxide levels can all substantially impact streamflow under drier future conditions. For wetter future scenarios, simulated differences in the flow regime were smaller, but there was still notable divergence in modeled low flows and other hydrologic variables. The results suggest that historical periods with equivalent precipitation statistics cannot necessarily be used as proxies for future climate change when examining catchment runoff response and/or model performance. The current literature likely underestimates the potential for nonstationarity in hydrologic assessments, especially for drier future scenarios. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159466
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Water Research Centre, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UNSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Department of Environmental Science, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States; Department of Engineering Systems and Environment, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States; Department of Environmental Sciences, University of California, Riverside, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Stephens C.M.,Marshall L.A.,Johnson F.M.,et al. Is Past Variability a Suitable Proxy for Future Change? A Virtual Catchment Experiment[J]. Water Resources Research,2020-01-01,56(2)