globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1007/s11869-019-00785-7
论文题名:
A likely increase in fine particulate matter and premature mortality under future climate change
作者: Park S.; Allen R.J.; Lim C.H.
刊名: Air Quality, Atmosphere and Health
ISSN: 18739318
出版年: 2020
卷: 13, 期:2
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Fine particulate matter ; GHG-induced warming ; Premature mortality
Scopus关键词: atmospheric pollution ; cancer ; cause of death ; climate change ; future prospect ; global warming ; greenhouse gas ; mortality ; particulate matter ; respiratory disease ; Africa
英文摘要: Climate change modulates the concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) via modifying atmospheric circulation, temperature, and the hydrological cycle. Furthermore, PM2.5 is associated with cardiopulmonary diseases and premature mortality. Here, we use seven models to assess the response of PM2.5 to end of the twenty-first century climate change under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, and the corresponding impact on premature mortality. The majority of models yield an increase in both PM2.5 and premature mortality associated with lung cancer and cardiopulmonary disease in all world regions except Africa. These results are robust across five different future population projections, although the magnitude of premature deaths can vary by up to a factor of two. Much larger uncertainty is related to uncertainty in model physics and the representation of aerosol processes. Although our analysis requires several assumptions related to future population estimates, as well as the concentration-response function, results suggest that future emission reductions are necessary to avoid the likely health risks associated with increasing PM2.5 in a warmer world. © 2020, The Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159520
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, 08826, South Korea; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California, Riverside, Riverside, CA 92521, United States; Department of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University, Seoul, 02841, South Korea

Recommended Citation:
Park S.,Allen R.J.,Lim C.H.. A likely increase in fine particulate matter and premature mortality under future climate change[J]. Air Quality, Atmosphere and Health,2020-01-01,13(2)
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