DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02558-8
论文题名: Probabilistic assessment and projections of US weather and climate risks and economic damages
作者: Franzke C.L.E. ; Czupryna M.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 1650009
出版年: 2020
卷: 158, 期: 2020-03-04 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate extremes
; Generalized Pareto distribution
; Mortality
; Non-stationarity
; Weather extremes
Scopus关键词: Economic and social effects
; Economics
; Global warming
; Pareto principle
; Risk assessment
; Risk perception
; Climate extremes
; Generalized Pareto Distributions
; Mortality
; Non-stationarities
; Weather extremes
; Damage detection
; climate prediction
; extreme event
; global warming
; Gross Domestic Product
; hazard assessment
; hazard management
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; mitigation
; natural disaster
; Pacific Decadal Oscillation
; probability
; United States
英文摘要: Weather and climate extremes cause significant economic damages and fatalities. Over the last few decades, the frequency of these disasters and their economic damages have significantly increased in the USA. The prediction of the future evolution of these damages and their relation to global warming and US economic growth is essential for deciding on cost-efficient mitigation pathways. Here we show using a probabilistic extreme value statistics framework that both the increase in US Gross Domestic Product per capita and global warming are significant covariates in probabilistically modeling the increase in economic damages. We also provide evidence that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation affects the number of fatalities. Using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios, we estimate the potential future economic risks. We find that by 2060, the extreme risks (as measured by 200-year effective return level) will have increased by 3–5.4 times. The damage costs due to extreme risks are projected to be between 0.1 and 0.7% of US Gross Domestic Product by 2060 and could reach 5–16% by 2100. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159586
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Meteorological Institute and Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; Faculty of Finance and Law, Cracow University of Economics, Cracow, Poland
Recommended Citation:
Franzke C.L.E.,Czupryna M.. Probabilistic assessment and projections of US weather and climate risks and economic damages[J]. Climatic Change,2020-01-01,158(2020-03-04)