DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112380
论文题名: Research on imbalance between supply and demand in China's natural gas market under the double-track price system
作者: Chai J. ; Zhang X. ; Lu Q. ; Zhang X. ; Wang Y.
刊名: Energy Policy
ISSN: 03014215
出版年: 2021
卷: 155 语种: 英语
中文关键词: China
; Double-track price system
; Imbalance
; NARDL
; Natural gas
英文关键词: Accident prevention
; Commerce
; Economic and social effects
; Gases
; Impulse response
; Liquefied natural gas
; Risk management
; Alternative energy
; Autoregressive distributed lag models
; China
; Double-track price system
; Economic development
; Energy prices
; Imbalance
; Natural gas markets
; Nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model
; Price system
; Costs
; demand analysis
; economic development
; energy market
; natural gas
; numerical model
; price determination
; research work
; supply chain management
; China
英文摘要: Under the double-track price system, alternative energy prices and the spread between liquefied natural gas and pipeline natural gas have created a supply-demand imbalance in China's natural gas market, which poses potential risks to economic development and industrial safety. Based on alternative energy prices, economic development level, and geopolitics, this paper used NARDL (Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model, NARDL) to analyze the effect of the spread on the imbalance in the natural gas market. It was shown that the spread and economic development level had a significant impact on the imbalance. Oil prices and geopolitics didn't have a significant impact in the short term while rising coal prices could alleviate the imbalance. Also, the imbalance and the spread in the natural gas market were likely to form a vicious cycle of mutual increase in the short term. Moreover, the impulse response results showed that the impact intensity of the spread on the natural gas market was greater under the background of “short supply” in 2017. Accordingly, a new pricing policy should be aimed at promoting the market-oriented reform, establishing an asymmetric price adjustment mechanism, and guiding rational consumption. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/167715
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Economics and Management, Xidian University, Xi'an, 710126, China; Academy Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China
Recommended Citation:
Chai J.,Zhang X.,Lu Q.,et al. Research on imbalance between supply and demand in China's natural gas market under the double-track price system[J]. Energy Policy,2021-01-01,155