ERL." href="http://images.iop.org/objects/erw/news/12/5/55/erlaa57abf1_hr.jpg">Sea-level pressure correlation
"The sectors of the energy industry that could benefit the most are those concerned with trading power in energy markets," Robin Clark of the UK Met Office told environmentalresearchweb. "Governments would also find the data useful in warning of a greater risk of energy shortages."
The study focuses on Northern Europe, where the NAO is a well-known driver of inter-annual climate variability. Winters are often windy and mild when the NAO (a difference in sea-level pressure) is positive, but calm and cold when it's negative.
The GloSea5 forecast system replicated observed conditions well in hindcasts of 20 winters from 1993 to 2012. This included correctly simulating the extreme winters of 2009, 2010 and 2011, which suggests that the tool has the potential to warn of worst-case events.
Key data that can be extracted for the energy sector include estimates of future near-surface wind-speed and wind-power density, which are relevant for turbine operators. The system also highlights upcoming changes in air temperature, which can indicate likely variations in power consumption. Previous research conducted by the Met Office and Reading University, UK, has shown that a 1 °C reduction in daily temperature can result in a 1% increase in daily electricity demand during winter.
"Trials with energy trading companies have taken place during the past two winters using real-time predictions to determine how the energy industry can best use the seasonal forecast output," said Clark. "These will continue."
There's also scope for the team to make further upgrades, for example by using very high-resolution models to extract greater detail from the seasonal forecast. "Advanced statistical methods can also be employed to extract and use more information from the GloSea5 system," Clark added.
Clark and colleagues published their findings in Environmental Research Letters (ERL).
Related links
- Skilful seasonal predictions for the European energy industry, Robin T Clark et al 2017 Environ. Res. Lett. 12 024002
- ERL
- Robin Clark, Met Office