| DOI: | 10.2172/1012524
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| 报告号: | PNNL-19320
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| 报告题名: | Bringing Water into an Integrated Assessment Framework |
| 作者: | Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Thomson, Allison M.; Sands, Ronald; Pitcher, Hugh M.
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| 出版年: | 2010
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| 发表日期: | 2010-11-30
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| 国家: | 美国
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 中文主题词: | 降水
; 人口
; 径流
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| 主题词: | PRECIPITATION
; POPULATION
; RUNOFF
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| 英文摘要: | We developed a modeling capability to understand how water is allocated within a river basin and examined present and future water allocations among agriculture, energy production, other human requirements, and ecological needs. Water is an essential natural resource needed for food and fiber production, household and industrial uses, energy production, transportation, tourism and recreation, and the functioning of natural ecosystems. Anthropogenic climate change and population growth are anticipated to impose unprecedented pressure on water resources during this century. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) researchers have pioneered the development of integrated assessment (IA) models for the analysis of energy and economic systems under conditions of climate change. This Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) effort led to the development of a modeling capability to evaluate current and future water allocations between human requirements and ecosystem services. The Water Prototype Model (WPM) was built in STELLAÂŽ, a computer modeling package with a powerful interface that enables users to construct dynamic models to simulate and integrate many processes (biological, hydrological, economics, sociological). A 150,404-km2 basin in the United States (U.S.) Pacific Northwest region served as the platform for the development of the WPM. About 60% of the study basin is in the state of Washington with the rest in Oregon. The Columbia River runs through the basin for 874 km, starting at the international border with Canada and ending (for the purpose of the simulation) at The Dalles dam. Water enters the basin through precipitation and from streamflows originating from the Columbia River at the international border with Canada, the Spokane River, and the Snake River. Water leaves the basin through evapotranspiration, consumptive uses (irrigation, livestock, domestic, commercial, mining, industrial, and off-stream power generation), and streamflow through The Dalles dam. Water also enters the Columbia River via runoff from land. The model runs on a monthly timescale to account for the impact of seasonal variations of climate, streamflows, and water uses. Data for the model prototype were obtained from national databases and ecosystem model results. The WPM can be run from three sources: 1) directly from STELLA, 2) with the isee PlayerÂŽ, or 3) the web version of WPM constructed with NetSimÂŽ software. When running any of these three versions, the user is presented a screen with a series of buttons, graphs, and a table. Two of the buttons provide the user with background and instructions on how to run the model. Currently, there are five types of scenarios that can be manipulated alone or in combination using the Sliding Input Devices: 1) interannual variability (e.g., El NiĂąo), 2) climate change, 3) salmon policy, 4) future population, and 5) biodiesel production. Overall, the WPM captured the effects of streamflow conditions on hydropower production. Under La NiĂąa conditions, more hydropower is available during all months of the year, with a substantially higher availability during spring and summer. Under El NiĂąo conditions, hydropower would be reduced, with a total decline of 15% from normal weather conditions over the year. A policy of flow augmentation to facilitate the spring migration of smolts to the ocean would also reduce hydropower supply. Modeled hydropower generation was 23% greater than the 81 TWh reported in the 1995 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) database. The modeling capability presented here contains the essential features to conduct basin-scale analyses of water allocation under current and future climates. Due to its underlying data structure iv and conceptual foundation, the WPM should be appropriate to conduct IA modeling at national and global scales. |
| URL: | http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1012524
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 研究报告
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/39614
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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| 1012524.pdf（1362KB） | 研究报告 | -- | 开放获取 | | View
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Izaurralde, Roberto C.,Thomson, Allison M.,Sands, Ronald,et al. Bringing Water into an Integrated Assessment Framework. 2010-01-01.
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