DOI: 10.5194/cp-10-797-2014
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84899081305
论文题名: Ensemble meteorological reconstruction using circulation analogues of 1781–1785
作者: Yiou P. ; Boichu M. ; Vautard R. ; Vrac M. ; Jourdain S. ; Garnier E. ; Fluteau F. ; Menut L.
刊名: Climate of the Past
ISSN: 18149324
出版年: 2014
卷: 10, 期: 2 起始页码: 797
结束页码: 809
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: atmospheric circulation
; ensemble forecasting
; meteorology
; reconstruction
; surface temperature
; volcanic eruption
; Iceland
; Laki
英文摘要: This paper uses a method of atmospheric flow analogues to reconstruct an ensemble of atmospheric variables (namely sea-level pressure, surface temperature and wind speed) between 1781 and 1785. The properties of this ensemble are investigated and tested against observations of temperature. The goal of the paper is to assess whether the atmospheric circulation during the Laki volcanic eruption (in 1783) and the subsequent winter were similar to the conditions that prevailed in the winter 2009/2010 and during spring 2010. We find that the 3 months following the Laki eruption in June 1783 barely had analogues in 2010. The cold winter of 1783/1784 yielded circulation analogues in 2009/2010. The reconstructed surface temperature over land bears significant correlations with local observations, although the amplitude of the reconstruction is weaker. © Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49278
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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Recommended Citation:
Yiou P.,Boichu M.,Vautard R.,et al. Ensemble meteorological reconstruction using circulation analogues of 1781–1785[J]. Climate of the Past,2014-01-01,10(2)