DOI: 10.5194/cp-9-393-2013
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84874453165
论文题名: Large-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium
作者: Fernández-Donado L. ; González-Rouco J.F. ; Raible C.C. ; Ammann C.M. ; Barriopedro D. ; García-Bustamante E. ; Jungclaus J.H. ; Lorenz S.J. ; Luterbacher J. ; Phipps S.J. ; Servonnat J. ; Swingedouw D. ; Tett S.F.B. ; Wagner S. ; Yiou P. ; Zorita E.
刊名: Climate of the Past
ISSN: 18149324
出版年: 2013
卷: 9, 期: 1 起始页码: 393
结束页码: 421
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: climate forcing
; climate modeling
; Little Ice Age
; Medieval
; paleoclimate
; paleotemperature
; proxy climate record
; reconstruction
; spatial distribution
; temperature effect
; temperature gradient
英文摘要: Understanding natural climate variability and its driving factors is crucial to assessing future climate change. Therefore, comparing proxy-based climate reconstructions with forcing factors as well as comparing these with paleoclimate model simulations is key to gaining insights into the relative roles of internal versus forced variability. A review of the state of modelling of the climate of the last millennium prior to the CMIP5-PMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5-Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3) coordinated effort is presented and compared to the available temperature reconstructions. Simulations and reconstructions broadly agree on reproducing the major temperature changes and suggest an overall linear response to external forcing on multidecadal or longer timescales. Internal variability is found to have an important influence at hemispheric and global scales. The spatial distribution of simulated temperature changes during the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age disagrees with that found in the reconstructions. Thus, either internal variability is a possible major player in shaping temperature changes through the millennium or the model simulations have problems realistically representing the response pattern to external forcing. A last millennium transient climate response (LMTCR) is defined to provide a quantitative framework for analysing the consistency between simulated and reconstructed climate. Beyond an overall agreement between simulated and reconstructed LMTCR ranges, this analysis is able to single out specific discrepancies between some reconstructions and the ensemble of simulations. The disagreement is found in the cases where the reconstructions show reduced covariability with external forcings or when they present high rates of temperature change. © 2013 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49471
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
Recommended Citation:
Fernández-Donado L.,González-Rouco J.F.,Raible C.C.,et al. Large-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium[J]. Climate of the Past,2013-01-01,9(1)