DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0777.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85027253013
论文题名: Future changes in European severe convection environments in a regional climate model ensemble
作者: Púčik T. ; Groenemeijer P. ; Rädler A.T. ; Tijssen L. ; Nikulin G. ; Prein A.F. ; Meijgaard E. ; Fealy R. ; Jacob D. ; Teichmann C.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 17 起始页码: 6771
结束页码: 6794
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Buoyancy
; Climate models
; Storms
; Central and Eastern Europe
; Convective storms
; Ensembles
; Environmental conditions
; Horizontal grid spacing
; Regional climate modeling
; Regional climate models
; Storm environments
; Climate change
英文摘要: The occurrence of environmental conditions favorable for severe convective storms was assessed in an ensemble of 14 regional climate models covering Europe and the Mediterranean with a horizontal grid spacing of 0.44°. These conditions included the collocated presence of latent instability and strong deep-layer (surface to 500 hPa) wind shear, which is conducive to the severe and well-organized convective storms. The occurrence of precipitation in the models was used as a proxy for convective initiation. Two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were investigated by comparing two future periods (2021-50 and 2071-2100) to a historical period (1971-2000) for each of these scenarios. The ensemble simulates a robust increase (change larger than twice the ensemble sample standard deviation) in the frequency of occurrence of unstable environments (lifted index ≥ -2) across central and south-central Europe in the RCP8.5 scenario in the late twenty-first century. This increase coincides with the increase in lower-tropospheric moisture. Smaller, less robust changes were found until midcentury in the RCP8.5 scenario and in the RCP4.5 scenario. Changes in the frequency of situations with strong (≥15 m s-1) deep-layer shear were found to be small and not robust, except across far northern Europe, where a decrease in shear is projected. By the end of the century, the simultaneous occurrence of latent instability, strong deep-layer shear, and model precipitation is simulated to increase by up to 100% across central and eastern Europe in the RCP8.5 and by 30%-50% in the RCP4.5 scenario. Until midcentury, increases in the 10%-25% range are forecast for most regions. A large intermodel variability is present in the ensemble and is primarily due to the uncertainties in the frequency of the occurrence of unstable environments. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49777
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: European Severe Storms Laboratory, Weßling, Germany; Department of Geography, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic; Georisk Department, Munich Re, Munich, Germany; Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden; Wegener Centre for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands; National University of Ireland, Maynooth, Ireland; Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Púčik T.,Groenemeijer P.,Rädler A.T.,et al. Future changes in European severe convection environments in a regional climate model ensemble[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(17)