DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0260.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84956593396
论文题名: How has human-induced climate change affected California drought risk?
作者: Cheng L. ; Hoerling M. ; Aghakouchak A. ; Livneh B. ; Quan X.-W. ; Eischeid J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 1 起始页码: 111
结束页码: 120
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Atmospheric radiation
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Drought
; Moisture
; Soil moisture
; Soils
; Water resources
; Agricultural drought
; Agricultural impacts
; Annual precipitation
; Anthropogenic forcing
; Cumulative precipitation
; Model experimentations
; Regional model
; Surface temperatures
; Climate change
; agricultural production
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; drought
; nineteenth century
; radiative forcing
; regional climate
; California
; United States
英文摘要: The current California drought has cast a heavy burden on statewide agriculture and water resources, further exacerbated by concurrent extreme high temperatures. Furthermore, industrial-era global radiative forcing brings into question the role of long-termclimate change with regard to California drought.How has human-induced climate change affected California drought risk? Here, observations and model experimentation are applied to characterize this drought employing metrics that synthesize drought duration, cumulative precipitation deficit, and soil moisture depletion. The model simulations show that increases in radiative forcing since the late nineteenth century induce both increased annual precipitation and increased surface temperature over California, consistent with prior model studies and with observed long-term change. As a result, there is no material difference in the frequency of droughts defined using bivariate indicators of precipitation and near-surface (10 cm) soil moisture, because shallow soil moisture responds most sensitively to increased evaporation driven by warming, which compensates the increase in the precipitation. However, when using soil moisture within a deep root zone layer (1m) as covariate, droughts become less frequent because deep soil moisture responds most sensitively to increased precipitation. The results illustrate the different land surface responses to anthropogenic forcing that are relevant for nearsurface moisture exchange and for root zone moisture availability. The latter is especially relevant for agricultural impacts as the deep layer dictates moisture availability for plants, trees, and many crops. The results thus indicate that the net effect of climate change has made agricultural drought less likely and that the current severe impacts of drought on California's agriculture have not been substantially caused by long-term climate changes. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50324
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States; Physical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, United States; University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Cheng L.,Hoerling M.,Aghakouchak A.,et al. How has human-induced climate change affected California drought risk?[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(1)