DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00779.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84942936321
论文题名: Projected changes in intense precipitation over Europe at the daily and subdaily time scales
作者: Scoccimarro E. ; Villarini G. ; Vichi M. ; Zampieri M. ; Fogli P.G. ; Bellucci A. ; Gualdi S.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 15 起始页码: 6193
结束页码: 6203
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Greenhouse gases
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Time measurement
; Europe
; Extreme events
; Heavy precipitation
; Intense precipitation
; Model output statistics
; Precipitation distribution
; Regional differences
; Statistically significant difference
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; diurnal variation
; extreme event
; greenhouse gas
; precipitation intensity
; statistical analysis
; timescale
; weather forecasting
; Europe
英文摘要: Heavy precipitation is a major hazard over Europe. It is well established that climate model projections indicate a tendency toward more extreme daily rainfall events. It is still uncertain, however, how this changing intensity translates at the subdaily time scales. The main goal of the present study is to examine possible differences in projected changes in intense precipitation events over Europe at the daily and subdaily (3-hourly) time scales using a state-of-the-science climate model. The focus will be on one representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), considered as illustrative of a high rate of increase in greenhouse gas concentrations over this century. There are statistically significant differences in intense precipitation projections (up to 40%) when comparing the results at the daily and subdaily time scales. Over northeastern Europe, projected precipitation intensification at the 3-hourly scale is lower than at the daily scale. On the other hand, Spain and the western seaboard exhibit an opposite behavior, with stronger intensification at the 3-hourly scale rather than the daily scale. While the mean properties of the precipitation distributions are independent of the analyzed frequency, projected precipitation intensification exhibits regional differences. This finding has implications for the extrapolation of impacts of intense precipitation events, given the daily time scale at which the analyses are usually performed. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50807
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy; IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, United States; Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Scoccimarro E.,Villarini G.,Vichi M.,et al. Projected changes in intense precipitation over Europe at the daily and subdaily time scales[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(15)