DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00589.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84942020501
论文题名: CMIP5 projections of arctic amplification, of the North American/North Atlantic circulation, and of their relationship
作者: Barnes E.A. ; Polvani L.M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 13 起始页码: 5254
结束页码: 5271
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Balloons
; Arctic regions
; Circulation changes
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Greenhouse forcing
; Net circulation
; North Atlantic
; Sequence of events
; State of the art
; Climate models
; arctic environment
; atmospheric circulation
; climate modeling
; midlatitude environment
; warming
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; North America
英文摘要: Recent studies have hypothesized that Arctic amplification, the enhanced warming of the Arctic region compared to the rest of the globe, will cause changes in midlatitude weather over the twenty-first century. This study exploits the recently completed phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and examines 27 state-of-the-art climate models to determine if their projected changes in the midlatitude circulation are consistent with the hypothesized impact of Arctic amplification over North America and the North Atlantic. Under the largest future greenhouse forcing (RCP8.5), it is found that every model, in every season, exhibits Arctic amplification by 2100. At the same time, the projected circulation responses are either opposite in sign to those hypothesized or too widely spread among the models to discern any robust change. However, in a few seasons and for some of the circulation metrics examined, correlations are found between the model spread in Arctic amplification and the model spread in the projected circulation changes. Therefore, while the CMIP5 models offer some evidence that future Arctic warming may be able to modulate some aspects of the midlatitude circulation response in some seasons, the analysis herein leads to the conclusion that the net circulation response in the future is unlikely to be determined solely-or even primarily-by Arctic warming according to the sequence of events recently hypothesized. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50827
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Barnes E.A.,Polvani L.M.. CMIP5 projections of arctic amplification, of the North American/North Atlantic circulation, and of their relationship[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(13)