| 英文摘要: | Resilience management goes beyond risk management to address the complexities of large integrated systems and the uncertainty of future threats, especially those associated with climate change. The human body is resilient in its ability to persevere through infections or trauma. Even through severe disease, critical life functions are sustained and the body recovers, often adapting by developing immunity to further attacks of the same type. Our society's critical infrastructure — cyber, energy, water, transportation and communication — lacks the same degree of resilience, typically losing essential functionality following adverse events. Although the number of climatic extremes may intensify or become more frequent1, there is currently no scientific method available to precisely predict the long-term evolution and spatial distribution of tropical cyclones, atmospheric blockages and extra-tropical storm surges; nor are the impacts on society's infrastructure in any way quantified2. In the face of these unknowns, building resilience becomes the optimal course of action for large complex systems. Resilience, as a property of a system, must transition from just a buzzword to an operational paradigm for system management, especially under future climate change. Current risk analysis methods identify the vulnerabilities of specific system components to an expected adverse event and quantify the loss in functionality of the system as a consequence of the event occurring3. Subsequent risk management has focused on hardening these specific system components to withstand the identified threats to an acceptable level and to prevent overall system failure. Two factors make this form of protection unrealistic for many systems. First, increasingly interconnected social, technical and economic networks create large complex systems and the risk analysis of many individual components becomes cost and time prohibitive. Second, the uncertainties associated with the vulnerabilities of these systems, combined with the unpredictability of climatic extremes, challenges our ability to understand and manage them. To address these challenges, risk analysis should be used where possible to help prepare for and prevent consequences of foreseeable events, but resilience must be built into systems to help them quickly recover and adapt when adverse events do occur. A roadmap for enabling the development of such capability should include: (1) specific methods to define and measure resilience; (2) new modelling and simulation techniques for highly complex systems; (3) development of resilience engineering; (4) approaches for communication with stakeholders. Strategies for communicating with policy makers are needed to support the shift to resilience management by legislative, regulatory and other means. The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) defines resilience as “the ability to prepare and plan for, absorb, recover from, and more successfully adapt to adverse events”4. Conceptually, risk analysis quantifies the probability that the system will reach the lowest point of the critical functionality profile. Risk management helps the system prepare and plan for adverse events, whereas resilience management goes further by integrating the temporal capacity of a system to absorb and recover from adverse events, and then adapt (Fig. 1). Resilience is not a substitute for principled system design or risk management5. Rather, resilience is a complementary attribute that uses strategies of adaptation and mitigation to improve traditional risk management. Strategies to build resilience can take the form of flexible response, distributed decision making, modularity, redundancy, ensuring the independence of component interactions or a combination of adaptive strategies to minimize the loss of functionality and to increase the slope of the recovery (Fig. 2).
Affiliations
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United States Army Corps of Engineers — Engineer Research and Development Center, Environmental Laboratory, 696 Virginia Road, Concord, Massachusetts 01742, USA
- Igor Linkov &
- Cate Fox-Lent
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United States Army Corps of Engineers — Engineer Research and Development Center, Environmental Laboratory, 3909 Halls Ferry Road, Vicksburg, Massachusetts 39180, USA
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Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Torgauer Straße 12–15, 10829 Berlin, Germany
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Embassy of Canada, Leipziger Platz 17, 10117 Berlin, Germany
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Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH), Scheuchzerstrasse 7, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
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University of Virginia, 151 Engineer's Way, Charlottesville, Virginia 22903, USA
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Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A 31, 14191 Potsdam, Germany
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Université Laval, 2325 Rue de l'Université, Québec G1V 0A6, Canada
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University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave W, Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1, Canada
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RNC Conseil and Ecole Centrale de Paris, 56 Rue Charles Laffitte, 92200 Neuilly-sur-Seine, France
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University of Stuttgart, Seidenstraße 36, 70174 Stuttgart, Germany
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Fraunhofer Institute for High-Speed Dynamics, Eckerstraße 4, 79104 Freiburg, Germany
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Hamburg University of Technology, Kasernenstraße 12, 21073 Hamburg, Germany
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Free University of Berlin, Ihnestraße 22, 14195 Berlin, Germany
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Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, Lohbrügger Kirchstrasse 65, 21033 Hamburg, Germany
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